As I suggested in a previous post, we are, alas losing the Medicare argument at present. To be sure it's only been a few weeks with Ryan and there is still time to turn it around, but right now the GOP is right where they wanted to be when Ryan first became the nominee.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/08/right-now-republicans-are-winnning.html
The Dems have to deal with this contradiction in public opinion regarding Medicare. There are two facts about public opinion.
A) Americans hate the Ryan plan. By huge margins of 2 to 1 and even larger among Seniors Americans reject his voucher plan.
B) However, completely paradoxically, they are not at present gaining anything by this politically. Recent polls seem to suggest that the public splits basically 50-50 on preferring President Obama or the Ryan-Romney Medicare plan.
The mission for Democrats is to somehow fix this disconnect. Clearly these two facets of public opinion are in conflict. How do we bring A and B together?
The GOP plan has worked optimally for them so far. They know about A just as well as we do. They come into the fight knowing perfectly well that the public disagrees with them. For that reason they have no illusion about winning the fight, their whole goal is just to fight to a draw. This is literally the phrase used by a RSCC video when Ryan became the nominee.
They don't need to win, they simply need to avoid it being the big loser that A says it should be. They just need the numbers in B to diverge enough from A to neutralize it as a Democratic weapon. So far they have.
The trick with politics is it's not enough to be right. On policy issues, taking the long hall,, the Democrats are usually right. Yet overall, they win only about half of the elections in this country. This has been the story since 1968.
We need B to come in line with A. Voters should favor Obama on Medicare by the same 2 to 1 or even 3 to 1 margin that they favor his approach-not fundamentally changing traditional Medicare.
How, is the 64 million dollar question. It can be done. The President, through his effective messaging has able to make the country realize that they favor his tax plan.
Note how we phrase this: the Democrats mission is basically to help the American people realize that they agree with them about Medicare. The President did this on taxes. Americans favor taxing the rich at a higher rate but not the middle class and the polls are in line as he is preferred on taxes by a double digit amount.
If anyone may know how to go about this it's Bill Burton. His Super Pac though seriously out-raised by Romney's Super Pacs, has been very effective in his Bain attacks on Romney.
The David Brookses of the world tend to tut-tut the Bain attacks as being a distraction from the real issues. To the contrary, the personal focus was needed to flesh out the real policy issues at stake regarding things like tax policy, the budget, and job creation.
When Burton did focus groups back in January, most that he interviewed refused to believe his claim that Romney is the most Right wing candidate we've seen in 100 years. What did sell better was the idea that he's out of touch. lacking in empathy and only cares about rich people like himself.
In truth the second message doesn't contradict the first-they actually are synonymous in fact. However, the public was more open to the second narrative than the first even though they're just two ways of making the same point.
While they hate to admit it publicly, the Romney camp admits off the record that the Bain attacks have been very effective.
Somehow the Obama team and the DNC will have to figure out the correct messaging for this out.
"That means the Obama campaign will have to change up to keep up, said Bob Shrum, a veteran of many Democratic presidential campaigns."
“Long term, as the campaign plays out, I would be very surprised if this issue didn’t redound very strongly to Obama’s benefit. But,” Shrum said, the Romney campaign has “thrown up the static of the $716 billion cut in Medicare.”
He added, “There’s a real advantage for Obama here, but he’s going to have to develop it, and he’s going to have to block the static that’s coming from Romney.”
"Democratic consultant Joe Trippi said the Ryan Medicare plan could help Obama’s team link its portrayal of Romney as a cold-hearted venture capitalist to fears about his agenda. But Trippi said the Obama campaign’s response to Romney’s counter-attack is cause for concern."
“I don’t get the sense that they expected that attack or were ready to thrust back on it, and that’s something that they may now regret or try to fix,” Trippi said. “The Republicans were better prepared for the attack coming than we were for the response.”
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/08/right-now-republicans-are-winnning.html
That's exactly right-the Dems were not ready for this. They need to figure this out. Paul Begalia says they will:
"Begala cited two famous lines to preview what lies ahead: from “The Wizard of Oz” — “All in due time, my pretty” — and from “Pulp Fiction” —“We’re going to go medieval on their ass.”
Well if that's true then we will have something to look forward to very soon.
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