He's currently trailing the tea party favorite the state treasurer Richard Mourdock by 5 points (44-39) with just 12 days left to go till the primary. Citizen's United is throwing lots of money behind Mourdock.
As I have suggested in previous posts, the Senate Democrats have a decided disadvantage as they are defending 21 incumbent Democrats in 2012 to just 10 by the GOP. However, there are a few things that might help. One is that backlash against the GOP among women and Latinos may shift the balance. In Massachusetts Scott Brown is stuck in a deadheat with Elizabeth Warren solely on the strength of the gender gap.
Then again if there are coattails in this race the Democrats will do very well-assuming as I am that Obama will do well.
What's happening in Indiana may augur well too as it suggests a problem that Romney is suffering from and may well harm the GOP in many races this year. It's the fact that the moderates have all been chased form the GOP the last few years. The Republican primary electorate is now very conservative. Much more so that the general electorate.
Exactly what you need to win a GOP primary is what hurts you in the general election. So Romney already is being hurt as he is now trying to backtrack from some pretty "severely conservative" things he said during the primary.
We may see many Republican races like Indiana where only the Tea Party endorsed candidate can win the primary but only the moderate candidate can win the general election.
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