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Thursday, April 5, 2012

MM vs. Krugman vs. MMT: Political and Definitional Debate?

     This is what a commentator had said at the Money Illusion and I'm beginning to think he may be right. It's definitional in the sense of what is called "fiscal" or "monetary." How we define these terms is itself a deeply political question.

    So we have Sumner's famous denial of fiscal stimulus whereas the MMTers turn it around and greatly prefer fiscal stimulus. Listen to Cullen Roche:

    .”Yes! I don’t like Monetary Policy that much. I think it’s about the worst way possible to get the economy moving, and it’s at least as distortionary as fiscal policy, if not worse.
But- it can and does work. We know it works on real estate lending as it’s primary channel to impact the economy, and well, sometimes we need more homes and buildings.
“To me, the bigger issue is not that the Fed tries to control interest rates and credit channels, but that we allow banks to be money issuers without strict oversight. If we’d had a simple 20% down law the crisis would have never happened. Instead, it’s the wild west and the bankers are out running around doing whatever they want knowing that when they screw up the taxpayer will step in. That’s what the kids call epic fail.”
      http://monetaryrealism.com/monetary-vs-fiscal-policy-vs-oversight/
    

     As mentioned above, there was that interesting commentator, AFB, at the Money Illusion who said this:

     "The more I read it, the more I find this whole MMT/Krugman/Market Monetarism debate to be boring. None of you disagree on the substantive theoretical economic issue, you disagree on DEFINITIONAL and POLITICAL ISSUES."

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/04/dan-kervick-on-scott-sumner.html

     In that previous post I commented about Dan Kervick's idea that the Fed in and of itself is not a good institution because it's unelected and seemed to suggest that even if it does the right thing-buys houses and bridges it's still problematic as it's unelected. I disagreed with that and still don't agree. However, in a way Dan's take on this relates to AFB's point that the real argument among the various schools-MM on the Right, Krugman in the Center, and MMT on the Left is definitional and political.

   What's definitional is whether you call a particular action fiscal or monetary. For example if the Fed does an helicopter drop is that fiscal or monetary stimulus? MMers say monetary, the MMTers say it's fiscal. Why does defining it one or the other matter so much? Because the definition is a political matter.

   Another interesting suggestion was made by Nathan in a comment at New Economic Perspectives that what monetary policy can't do is dictate the shape of aggregate demand but only the size. In my previous post-linked above-I had made a reduction absurdem about what if the Fed intended to add $50,000 stimulus to the economy today? Would you prefer that Bernanke did this by buying a few T-bills or sending you a $50,000 check?

   While perhaps the macroeconomist would say there is no difference in terms of its overall welfare effect on the economy, that we're up $50,000 even way for you personally it would make a huge difference. If you were short money your welfare would be greatly enhanced by the check, whereas the T-bills would have minimal effect for you.

    If for example your daughter was very sick and needed an expensive surgery that the $50,000 would cover this exacerbates things by another major factor  in favor of the check -from the stand point of your own personal welfare.

    If we have another Katrina like event where would assistance be more beneficial if we need $100 billion dollars to fully deal with the crisis? Would it be better to have the Fed buy $100 billion in T-bills or send it to the state the disaster occurred at giving the money to the fire department and the Red Cross?

   These are situations that it is not a piece of indifference how the stimulus is translated. It makes all the difference-in other words the shape of such operations are greatly significant.

   

18 comments:

  1. "For example if the Fed does an helicopter drop is that fiscal or monetary stimulus?"

    Can the Fed even do a helicopter drop?

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  2. While perhaps the macroeconomist would say there is no difference in terms of its overall welfare effect on the economy, that we're up $50,000 even way for you personally it would make a huge difference. If you were short money your welfare would be greatly enhanced by the check, whereas the T-bills would have minimal effect for you.

    Hi Mike,

    I think this shows that the disagreement is not simply about politics and arbitrary definitions, but about substantive issues.

    If a macroeconomist says there is no substantive difference between these two procedures, then I have to say, in light of the kinds of empirical considerations that Scott Fullwiler lays out so well, that macroeconomist is just wrong. The statement is as wrong as saying that it makes no difference whether you sow a bag of seeds on rocks or fertile ground, because the agriculture system gets the same number of seeds either way.

    $50,000 distributed to households with a high propensity to consume will add immediately to aggregate demand. A very high proportion of that money will be used to purchase goods and services, and lead to higher production of of goods and services and higher employment. $50,000 added to a bank's reserve balance does no such think. It makes a marginal difference to the bank's cost of reserves, and is unlikely to affect its lending decisions in any significant way. And even if the bank does lend more, the added purchasing power the borrower receives comes in the form of credit that has to be paid back.

    It really makes a difference whether the money multiplier account of bank lending is true or false. And I believe its false

    Krugman tried to take this easy way out too, by saying that it doesn't matter whether the central bank targets a decrease in the overnight rate by increasing the quantity of reserves, or targets an increase in the quantity of reserves by lowering rates. Something like the money multiplier works either way. But the point is that if you just think about the sheer mathematics of adding reserve balances to bank reserve accounts, and understand how banks make their lending decisions, it should be obvious that those added balances don't create nearly as much of an increase in demand as occurs when the money is sent to consumers instead.

    It's true that if some act of increased spending from the public treasury is "monetized" rather than corresponding to increased taxation or increased borrowing from the public, then it is justifiably regarded as an act of both fiscal and monetary policy. So some acts of monetary policy are acts of fiscal policy. But that doesn't mean that every act of monetary policy is an act of fiscal policy; and it certainly doesn't mean that any act of central bank additions to bank reserves will be just as effective as an act of treasury additions to the disposable incomes of consumers.

    There definitely is politics involved in this debate. But that doesn't mean its just some idle and meaningless ideological ramble. Its political disagreement about stuff that really matters. My view is that the old guard of the economic establishment, which serves the wealthy above all, is desperately trying to prevent the public from realizing that the government is creating money all the time, but that it just gives this money to banks, and big players and dealers in the financial sector, instead of to ordinary people in the real economy.

    The government is the monopoly supplier of net financial assets and is boosting the net supply of private sector financial assets all the time. But we have a choice: do we feed those assets into the system only through the channel that consists of banks and privileged financial players, or do we feed them in through the bank accounts of ordinary folks?

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  3. Thank you for all your feedback Dan. I greatly appreciate it. It was actually on your post, particularly a suggestion by comment left by Nathan that kind of gave me a minor epiphany about what the real difference between monetary and fiscal policy is.

    I have always been deeply skeptical of Sumner though I always read him with interst-he's very tricky and plays every game of concern trolling like a pro. He's a credit to his hero, Milton Friedman.

    The idea of AFB-and you-about the political dimension of this question helped. I think there's a lot of truth in his point that whether we call something monetary or fiscal policy has deep political implications which is why the MMer Lars Christensen went as far as claiming that "there is no fiscal policy" it's all monetary policy, our attempt to even speak of fiscal policy stems from an intellectual error.

    But Nathan's idea that monetary policy can't effect the "shape" of aggregate demand gave me my minor ephiphany enabling me to come to these examples about where $50,000 goes.

    I've always on some level known it's deeply wrong to say that it makes no difference where teh money goes when there are many people hurting. I mean just on humanist grounds it mattters-though the Monetarists like to make such concerns almost seem to disquailify you as being an economist if you point that out.

    But beyond that on econoimcally rigoristic grounds-which do matter to me-it seems profoundly wrong. And like you said above-people in need are going to spend a lot more of that money right away. In a case like this crisis, monetary policy-certainly just buying T-bills which Sumner admits is what he's partial too-is a pretty indirect way at getting at the problem-it fails to change the "shape" of AD

    Cullen Roche's post helped me quite a bit too. His point is that monetary policy does have it's uses it's very good when the need is to stimulate the housing sector but of course as of 2008 housing had already gone through bubble and bust and arguably trying to reinflate that right away should not have been such a priority.

    In any case Bernanke's moves seems not to have done anything to either bring the housing market back-it may have necessarily not been able to do it too quickly, nor did Paulson's Tarp bring back lending quickly.

    Roche's take seems to suggest to me what the correct attitude probably should be-there's a role for monetary policy but it's use is different than fiscal policy and perhaps we shoulod prefer fiscal policy. By the way I agree that we need to figure out fiscal policy long term-not just during the current need for "stimulus" and yes Sumner speaks of "monetary policy" rather than just "stimulus."

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  4. I'm getting off topic but I was very interested in what I read about Minsky the other day. Of course Minsky was where the original current debate with Krugman came from.

    What interested me was less about the current debate with Krugman than what he said about the 70s. This is important too as the Great Inflation is always used as the reawson for both tight fed policy and of course budget austerity. People like Dallas Fed guy Fisher still talk about "stagflation"-as of course does the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

    Minsky argued that we have two choices during a bad recession-debt asset deflation or price inflation. He argued that in 1975 the reason we avoided a depression was government transfer payments-especially unemployment benefits which quadrupled during the down turn. To be sure, back then UI payments were much more generous then. Now it's not indexed to inflation and is not very much.

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  5. Mike,
    I'll admit up front that I'm not the sharpest tax in the box when it comes to these type of debates. There seems to be quite a bit of discussion in the blogosphere, particularly between Keen and Krugman regarding the theory of money and banking. In fact, there's a recent post at Naked Capitalism by Dan Kervick http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/04/dan-kervick-beware-of-rule-by-central-banks.html that touches on the subject. Go give it a read. I think you'll find his criticism of Sumner justified. More importantly, I think Mr. Kervick is right in arguing that a more effective means of increasing aggregate demand is by giving the money directly to consumers as opposed to increasing balance sheet levels at distressed banking institutions. The question is, can the Fed do a direct transfer of funds to individual taxpayers without Congressional authority? Mr. Kervick?

    In my opinion, the most significant factor that has stymied recovery and and kept unemployment at unacceptably high levels is the wrongheaded thinking by so called conservatives and for the most part Republicans. All the focus on stabilizing the financial sector without any consideration for the overburdened individual borrower will only prolong the problem. Without wage inflation, there isn't much hope for narrowing the output gap. Consumers are maxed out on credit and are in no mood for borrowing more at present. And even if they are, the banks are in a position where rates are too low to justify the risk exposure. Quite a conundrum. And then there is the politics.

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  6. nanute,

    That essay at Naked Capitalism is actually the same one Mike was talking about. It was just given a new title by the folks at Naked Capitalism when they re-posted it from New Economic Perspective.

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  7. Dan,
    Like I said up front, I'm not the sharpest tack in the box. Thanks for the clarification.

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  8. Yes Nanute Dan's article was a big catalyst for my last few posts. I've been following the Krugman-Keen fight but it's happily-in my mind-gotten off that and expanded to what's more important-going after Scott Sumner and all Monetarism more generally-Market of otherwise.

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  9. It is good to hear from you again though my friend. I missed you.

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  10. Mike,
    What is the e mail address that you monitor on a regular basis? I've been out your way a few times over the past few weeks. I take your point regarding Sumner. However; I think the Keen/Krugman debate is very interesting.

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  11. The whole debate started with Krugman-Keen so yeah it was a good thing. All I'mm saying is I'm not really clear wholly what the debate was about-something about how bank reserves work-and where the payoff is. I believe the payoff is there, just haven't totally wrapped my mind around it yet.

    nymike_sax@yahoo.com is the best place to email me.

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  12. Too bad I missed you when you were around.

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  13. The whole Keen/Krugman debate is very wonkish. I, like you haven't fully grocked the big picture. I think it is a matter of how money is created, and how it relates to reserves and lending. Are loans constrained by reserve requirements? What effect, if any, do deposits have on lending/borrowing? As you say, still trying to parse out the underlying theory. I'll send you an e mail.

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  14. I think there is one distinct difference between a Fed helicopter drop and conventional fiscal policy, namely that in the first instance no real goods are explicitly transferred to the public domain. It isn't the monetary side of where politics comes in, it's the real side. (Real, as in products and services)

    So one can see why monetarists would embrace a helicopter drop, and also try to define it as a monetary operation. To them, fiscal = socialist and monetary = market. And you're right, this is a distinction along political lines. The MMT definition, by concentrating on monetary not real aggregates, is less politically biased, in this particular case.

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  15. Yes Nanute. No doubt MMT says they aren't reserve restrained and that depositis have no effect on borrowing/lending. What I don't get totally yet is why this matters so much assuming they're right-which I honestly don't know.

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  16. Right Oliveer. See to me Sumner has a truly audacious, aggressive line-he's trying rule out fiscal policy in principle as a way to deel with recdessions.

    While it's audacious it is very wrongheaded. I agree that monetary policy as Cullen Roche says has a role-in many ways more connected with teh real estate market. But there are many t hings that monetary policy is not the best choice for. And it's up to us-thouse of us who conest Sumner's move to understand and elaborate this in as clear and analystical a way as possible.

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  17. Mike: "For example if the Fed does an helicopter drop is that fiscal or monetary stimulus? MMers say monetary, the MMTers say it's fiscal."

    I would say it's both monetary and fiscal, and I think my terminology is conventional.

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  18. Ok it may well be. I was thinking of partiuclary creative MMers like Lars who claim it's only monetary-that "fiscal policy does not exist"

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