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Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Krugman, Keen, Fullwiler and MMT vs. MM

      I've been keeping up with the debate between Krugman and Keen. Lately Fullwiler has also joined against Krugman. It's a very interesting debate that I've already written about a few times.

      I got to admit I'm not always sure what the real punchline of the thing is-what is the policy implications of it though I do believe they are dramatic. The original difference centered around a paper Krugman had written with Eggertsson about Minsky and his theory of debt asset deflation during a major recession-depression.

     For the original links please see http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/03/krugman-stephen-keen-and-minsky.html

     Keen had complained that Krugman new nothing about banking and that by leaving banks out of his model it was totally inadequate. Krugman replied that this was "banking mysticism."

     Then leading MMTer Scott Fullwiler wrote a new post claiming that Krugman is wholly ignorant about this and just doesn't get it:

      "Paul Krugman has posted a reply to this post that is a straw man. He and Nick Rowe are viewing this all through the lens of the old Monetarist/Keynesian debates in which there was a choice b/n interest rate targets and monetary aggregate targets; the Monetarist critique assumed the Keynesians were going to keep interest rates at the same level forever and not change them. Once John Taylor came up with his “rule,” everyone agreed an interest rate target could work."

     "What we are talking about here is operational tactics–the CB can only target an interest rate. It cannot target a reserve balances or the monetary base directly. But that is different from strategy–that is, WHERE the CB puts its target and WHEN it chooses to change the target. There is NOTHING in anything I’ve ever said or anything any PK’er, MMT’er, etc., has ever said that suggests the CB can’t set the target wherever it wants whenever it wants. The point is that whatever the target is, THAT is what its daily operations defend directly, not a monetary aggregate, not the monetary base, not reserve balances. There is nothing in anything I’ve said that would preclude the CB from running a Taylor’s Rule type strategy, for instance, that responds at any point in time endogenously to the state of the economy. That is, the target rate is an exogenous control variable (i.e., it is necessarily set by the CB) that it sets endogenously in response to economic events."

     http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/04/krugmans-flashing-neon-sign.html#comment-9429

    What I actually found of interest is Fullwiler's link on what he has written about fiscal policy, where he says that "helicopter drops" are fiscal rather than monetary operations. This is totally at variance with MM. Indeed Lars Christensen went as far as to claim there is not such thing as fiscal policy-it's all monetary by another name. What really interests me more than anything is to finally get what the difference between fiscal and monetary policy truly is.

     For the background of Christensen's argument and my intervention in this discussion please see the following links

    http://marketmonetarist.com/2012/01/18/there-is-no-such-thing-as-fiscal-policy/
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/01/sumner-and-awesome-obfuscation.html
http://marketmonetarist.com/2012/01/31/christensens-postmodernist-mind-fuck/
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/01/market-monetarist-mmt-smackdown-20.html
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/01/lars-chistensen-writes-post-about-me.html


     I did talk to an interesting commentator at Fullwiler's blog, Dan Herwick Yet when I questioned him he said this:

    "I probably sometimes express my position in an extreme way because I am focusing on the role of the Fed in the recent recessionary times. In a more normal economy with higher interest rates, I believe the Fed can help stimulate lending by lowering rates, and help cool down lending in an overheated economy by raising rates."

      Now, of course, Dan was not the one driving the argument-Stephen Keen and then Fullwiler were. But based on Dan's view how much do those going after Krugman right now really disagree with him? And if there is something, how much does it really matter to our understanding of the monetary system? What will it help us to understand/do that we can't right now?

4 comments:

  1. I've been following this debate with interest as well. Guys like Krugman (who I think is basically one of the good guys) need to learn what the hell a bank does and doesnt do. Here is my answer to your last questions

    I think Krugman generally arrives at the right answers, even if for incorrect reasons, but by staying with the flawed neo liberal models you are just "giving cover to the enemy" so to speak. Loanable funds and money multiplier models are not just incorrect, they continue to perpetuate ideas that lead to slow destructions of our public works. When one can model your govt like a household and ask "How long can you continue to spend more than you take in" without someone laughing and pointing at you...... something is bad wrong. Krugman still believes our (public)debts can be a problem, just further down the road. Yet he sees NO problem from private debts. Frankly, this is insane. Private debts dont simply net to zero and thus are not affecting AD. A bank is not a simple intermediary between saver and borrower. Getting that wrong is like forgetting that govts can issue currency. Banks are better perceived as outside the private sector like the govt is. They create credit money from thin air whenever they want. Difference between bank money and govt money is govt money you pay a tax on bank money you pay interest on. The tax can be removed and you get to keep the money. Even if the interest is removed you still have to pay back the credit money.

    Once the average Joe understands banking and the true nature of govt fiat money........ watch out! The conversation Paul Ryan wants to have with the country wont go the way he hopes!

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  2. Greg, when you say this:

    "Once the average Joe understands banking and the true nature of govt fiat money........ watch out! The conversation Paul Ryan wants to have with the country wont go the way he hopes!"

    I can only hope you're right. I agree with you that the wrong theory even with the right policy prescription can be problematic. In fairness Krugman always denies and indeed does laugh and point at that argument. Its true he has suggested that it could be a problem down the road and I agree we should not be saying that.

    Right now, the best deficit reduction plan would simply be strong demand driven growth.

    I must thank you twice in any case, Greg. Once in given me decent answer to my question and second, you have given me the gist for another post for which I am always grateful.

    I also really want to tease out more something I spoke to Scoot Fullwiler about-what the real difference is between fiscal and monetary policy as the MMers are I think really trying to persaude us to never do fiscal policy-Sumner et al.

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  3. Unfortunately that Eureka moment wont occur before the conversation takes place but I would love to see Ryan talking about "Not having the money to pay social security and Medicare" or some such twaddle and have a journalist say "Really? We dont have the money to pay those things? Hows that?"

    I saw Fullwilers answer and Im not sure Ive seen it described exactly that way before (but I liked it), I have always understood Fiscal operations to be about govt buying things and taxing things while monetary policy is mostly about the risk free saving rate AND the lending rate of banks.

    Im convinced that Sumner and friends, since they admit to not understanding banking or accounting, are just willfully ignorant. How can you understand anything about how transactions affect the real world and not study banking and accounting? Its mind boggling. Ivory tower bullshit.

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  4. Greg here's the post I promised-inspried largely by your comments.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/04/whats-at-stake-in-krugman-mmt-standoff.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29

    I agree we need correct theory not just and knowledge which is why I like econoics so much and think it so important.

    I no doubt look for the day when we won't be hostage to sophistical economic arguments on the Wall Street Journal editorial pages.

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