Joe Scarborough Says It: GOP Knows Romney Won't Win

      This is notable as Joe's a Republican and he said that he knows no Republican power brokers who believe Romney is going to beat Obama this Fall. In saying this he was only speaking the truth. This year has clearly been seen as a throw a way year by the GOP establishment. They know they'll have a much better chance in 2016-they won't be up against an incumbent, and it's tough for a party in American politics to win more than two consecutive terms.


      At this point I would presume-as I mentioned in a previous post-that at this point the generic 2016 Republican leads the generic 2016 Democrat. Chris Christie recently said 2016 is more like it. Still, as I also mentioned in that post, we as Democrats are far from without worry. First of all there is the Supreme Court which while you can read too much into the questions last week, it's clear Obama's law could be overturned-even the whole thing as many of the conservative judges seemed to want to argue that the mandate is needed for the whole thing to work and that they can't be expected to sort the whole thing out so that if the mandate goes, the whole law may go.

    My real source of concern remains Congress. The early polls seem to be indicating the Republicans really do have a shot at taking back the Senate and that the Democrats will make no dent in the prohibitive Republican majority in the House. Obviously it's early, much of these projections aren't based on polls but the prognostications of pundits and many of these races don't even candidates yet. Nevertheless, it bodes ill, and these same polls show the GOP set to make more gains in state Governors-they do assume Walker holds of the recall in Wisconsin but right now he's only in the "weak GOP."

    So while I agree that the GOP when they are behind closed doors admit they don't think Romney has much hope, they also may say that the real action is in Congress and the states.

   Then again you have all the redistricting and the new voter id laws all of which benefit the GOP. An example of redistricting  in action is a challenge that long time Harlem Rep Charlie Rangel whose district has been redistricted faces in 2012 from a tough challenger. The redistricitng has turned his district from one with an African American majority to one where they only make up a third of the voters-the majority is now Dominican. Rangel faces a popular up and coming Dominican opponent who didn't want to run against Rangel but an attempt to appeal the new district lines in federal court lost.

   This is the GOP happily putting a wedge between people, dividing people, really the power of the wedge issue in action. There's a danger that in future years these two minority groups may be at each other's throat. I for one would hate to see Rangel who has done so much for NY and the country going out like Kucinich did-another victim of GOP redistricting.

    Does this mean that the future is bright for the GOP? I actually don't think so, in the long term they will have problems, I believe, but in the near future things could go pretty well-they won't win the Presidency but may win most other things this year.