Very good piece by Ed Kilgore who lays down what Obama-and Biden must start to lay the groundwork tonight-must do. What it comes down it is that Romney is not a moderate nor has he moved to the Center. However, he's saying moderate things are things that are calculated to sound moderate and he had at least some success with it during the first debate. The trick is that the President has to not just say it but show it in his next debate. Again, Biden will hopefully make a start on this tonight by attacking Ryan as a Romney surrogate.
There's been some debate about whether Romney is a Right wing ideologue or a flip-flopper. I don't see why these narratives should be mutually exclusive. Romney is running on the most Right wing platform in 100 years. This is not hyperbole. No GOP candidate has even dared so brazenly run against the New Deal as Romney is this year. He's also taken some abortion positions that are even to the Right of George W. Bush. While he tried on Tuesday to sound more "moderate' about abortion he's now been forced to reiterate his plan to end Planned Parenthood "on his first day."
In truth the reason why Romney flip-flops is because of how unpopular his platform is on everything from taxes to Medicare and Medicaid to abortion to birth control. The issues don't favor him. So he has to obfuscate, distort, prevaricate, essentially run a shell game. Anything but admit what his true positions are. He did a great job last week at this shell game. It's time for Obama-Biden to call him out. That's what Biden must start to aim at this week.
Here is Kilgore who does a great job of bottom-lining their task:
"I’d say all the bumps Mitt’s been getting in the polls on various comparisons with Obama suggest the last interpretation is most likely. And yes, that means Romney successfully sold the “moderate Mitt” mirage, which one might expect when half the Democrats watching were shouting ripostes to Romney’s self-characterization of his agenda that Obama didn’t offer or didn’t offer clearly."
"Kevin Drum said last night that the real problem is that Obama and Biden will be fighting a lot of inbred voter prejudices if they come right and out call Romney and Ryan liars. But on the other hand, R&R are on a tightrope: they can’t really flip-flop a great deal from their actual record and actual agenda—conservatives still have them on a short leash—so a solid repetition of the many promises they’ve made, matched with clearly expressed disinctions of how they differ from what the administration is promising to do—should, over time, erode the “New Romney” pretty effectively."
"It won’t be easy, but Team Obama really doesn’t have much of a choice. If Romney emerges from the debates as Moderate Mitt, this nice earnest man who loves working with Democrats, isn’t interested in divisive social issues, and has a policy agenda that sounds fairly reasonable, then the favorable impression he made in Debate #1 could really turn into the perceived candidate on the ballot on November 6. In periods of public unhappiness, Safe Change is always the politically winning message."
"Besides, if Democrats can’t mine the vast record of extremism compiled by the GOP and its ticket over the last two years, and show that it’s a more shocking and uncompromising version of what the party stood for prior to 2008, then they really can’t expect to win. So they should place a lot less emphasis going forward on style points and “energy levels” and all the other superficial jazz the pundits love so much and concentrate on what is actually endangering Obama’s re-election (other than deeply ingrained perceptions of his performance): the repositioning of Romney and Ryan as thoughtful leaders who just want to fix the economy and “reform” the more excessive features of government. If these birds get away with that, it’s going to take one hell of a GOTV effort to get the incumbents over the hump."
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2012_10/separating_the_debate_wheat_fr040416.php
I agree, it's not enough to call them liars you have to "show" that they're liars. This is done by contrasting what they've been trying to claim lately with what they've said in the past and their actual positions are.
By the way Kilgore's right about the reason for the bounce but I'm still not sure that the Romney bounce isn't fading-despite what Nate Silver said this morning.
"One hypothesis is that Mr. Romney’s debate bounce was initially very strong, but has since faded some. There is a case to be made for this — but Wednesday’s polling made it weaker.
Although Mr. Romney’s standing declined by two points in the Gallup national tracking poll, he improved slightly in four other tracking surveys, from Rasmussen Reports, Ipsos, Investors’ Business Daily and the RAND Corporation. And the state polling data that came in on Wednesday was generally consistent with about a three-and-a-half-point bounce for Mr. Romney, similar to previous days."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/oct-10-is-romney-leading-right-now/
I don't find the fact that slight improvement in other tracking polls necessarily cinches it. How do you explain that not only is the President up 50-45 in Gallup-among registered voters-but that his approval rating now stands at 53 approve with only 42 disapproving? This shows that while Kilgore is correct about the danger of "Moderate Mitt" it's also a fact that the debate didn't seem hurt the perceptions most Americans have of the President.
In addition, they remain tied on the economy-as has been the case since the convention. So while Silver argues that the entire DNC bounce is gone, it seems that a large part of the convention's message seems to have made a permanent impression. With more good economic numbers today this is something that should help the President. Will Nate look at this-probably he will to an extent, we'll see how persuasive he finds it.
I feel like the media is doing everything to attenuate the Romney bounce mantra. The polls that are less supportive of it don't get the same play. Some new polls by the NYTimes/CBS poll bode much less well for Romney. See this from the Plum Line:
* Polls show Obama leading in key states: The NYT/CBS polls show Obama leading in Virginia, 51-46, and in Wisconsin, 50-47, with Romney narrowly ahead in Colorado, 48-47.
There has been virtually no movement in the head to head in these states since before the debate, perhaps suggesting Romney’s bounce may be subsiding. The polls were taken from October 4-9; the samples contain polling taken on the two days just after the debate. The next round of polls, which won’t include those two days, will be even more instructive.
* Obama, Romney still tied on economy: Another key finding: Obama and Romney remain tied on the economy in Virginia (48-48) and roughly tied in Wisconsi (47-49); Romney leads in Colorado on the question. What’s more, huge numbers in Virginia (63), Wisconsin (63) and Colorado (60) say Romney has not clearly explained his plans for the next four years.
* Obama still leads in Ohio: The new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls show Obama ahead in Ohio (51-45), and barely in Florida (48-47). Unlike in the NYT/CBS poll, Romney holds a small edge in Virginia (48-47). There’s been virtually no movement in Ohio since before the debate, when the spread was 51-43.
Between this and Tuesday’s CNN survey, we now have two major post-debate polls showing Obama over 50 percent in this crucial state
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line
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