Tonight's Debate: What's at Stake?

      I have to admit I'm something of an agnostic about this debate. CNBC insists on drawing a picture where both Romney and the President face high risks. If this is true then a lot is at stake:

      "President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney come face to face for the first time in this presidential campaign Wednesday night for a nationally televised debate that will give millions of Americans a chance to size up two fierce competitors in a moment of high-risk theater."

       "Romney, trailing in polls in a number of key states and running short on time to reverse his fortunes, is angling for a breakout performance in the three 90-minute presidential debates scheduled over the next three weeks."
     
      "Obama, well aware that the remaining five weeks of the race still offer enough time for tectonic shifts in his prospects, is determined to avoid any campaign-altering mistakes as he presses his case for a second term."

      http://www.cnbc.com/id/49270852

       I think it's an exaggeration to say the President has a high risk. There really is not much precedent for debates being a game changer. Nate Silver did a piece today about this and he observed that usually the challenger gains something-about 1.5% on average. However, in most elections they still haven't won and, indeed, the incumbent won by an average of 1.4%.

      " there were two debates that reversed the leader in the race. Mr. Reagan, in 1980, moved ahead of Jimmy Carter following their first and only head-to-head debate on Oct. 28, and then he won overwhelmingly. In 2000, George W. Bush moved ahead of Al Gore in the polls after their first debate, and Mr. Bush won the election, although he lost the popular vote."

     http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/first-debate-often-helps-challenger-in-polls/

     1980 again! I don't think that's much of an analogy to this race. For one thing, as Nate himself has pointed out in other posts, 1980 is nothing like this race. While Reagan may have trailed in that particular poll prior to the debate and lead in it subsequently, that doesn't mean that Reagan won the election solely based on the debate.

      One big difference is that Reagan may have trailed immediately prior to the debate but had already often lead in the race-after his convention he led by 30 points. Indeed, Nate has also observed that Reagan may well have led throughout most of that race. Even if you think that debate was important for Reagan-I watched it just recently and have to say, reluctantly, that Carter definitely got whipped that night-it wasn't the sole or dominant factor.

       Romney has trailed throughout this entire race. He's been compared to Kerry in 2004 which is a much more apt comparison. In fact, what Romney is really hoping for tonight is to do a Kerry. Kerry badly bloodied Bush in their first debate. While Bush had built close to a 10 point lead going in-with a similar dynamic to what Obama gained from his convention; what's more Kerry like Romney this year actually lost a point from his own convention-Kerry was able to pull back into a tie largely from the debate.

       The obvious problem is that it's unlikely that the President will look as bad as Bush did-I'd say it's essentially impossible.

       Yet, the Kerry comparison is interesting for another reason. It actually reminds us that Kerry was a much stronger candidate polling wise. He led throughout much of the Summer. He also didn't have Romney's high unfavorables.

       I don't see this debate as being the magic bullet that it's been built up to be. My prediction is that one of these two scenarios is most likely.

       1). Nothing much happens. Maybe Romney does ok, but the President more than holds his own. This adds up to another net loss for Romney who needs to make up ground. If this isn't some kind of game changer, what will be? What's the next magic bullet?

       2). Romney actually says something really stupid and even loses ground.

       He does have a propensity to say stupid things. It certainly wouldn't be the first time. The scenario I don't see as likely is that he does a Kerry.