We've seen Romney go up from a 48-48 tie in Friday to now a 52-45 lead. This likely voter poll is a new feature for Gallup they started just last week and you have to wonder if they've figured out all the bugs in the model.
Not only is this wildly out of whack with other tracking polls-both IBD and Reuters give the President mild leads and even Rasmussen gives Romney only a 2 point lead among likely voters but it's also wildly out of whack with Gallup's other two polls, registered voters and the President's job approval numbers.
Obama trails among registered voters only 48-47. So what this would mean is that there is now a 6 point gap between likely and registered voters?! On the other hand we've seen the President's approval rating rally: today it's now at 50% approve-44% disapprove. Such a huge gap between approval and the race's poll numbers is very counterintutive.
As the race goes on you expect the numbers to converge not the opposite. So if you came across TalkingPointsMemo featuring the news that Romney leads by 7 points-don't have a cow. I think maybe Josh Marshall is trying to keep Dems on their toes or something.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-romney-opens-up-7-point-lead?ref=fpb
As Nate Silver suggested at this point it's very difficult to say anything intelligent about the state of this race until some numbers that show the effects of Tuesday's debate kick in. This is why Nate hasn't written anything today and why most analysts are taking a wait and see attitude.
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