It seems all the talk about Romney's "momentum" is finally getting checked by at least large parts of the media. There are some who dearly hate to see it go like Chris Cillizza over at the Fix can only bring himself to wonder is it possible that it's all just hype.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/25/is-mitt-romneys-momentum-real-or-fake/?hpid=z3
Jonathan Bernstein, however, today calls it what it is: a myth.
"Republicans have been pushing hard this week to convince people that Mitt Romney is wrapping up the presidential election. Since he’s not actually, well, leading, Romney partisans have relied on the idea that Romney has momentum: Even if he isn’t actually ahead yet, he is certain to take a commanding lead any minute now."
"But that “momentum” appears to have been entirely an invention of Republic spinners. It’s certainly true that Romney made impressive gains on Barack Obama in roughly the first week of October, probably in most part as a consequence of the first debate. But after that, the contest has been almost completely flat. For example, the Pollster trend line shows the race a dead heat on October 8 — and that since then, any movement has been only by small fractions of a percentage point. Nate Silver’s “nowcast” bottomed out for the president on October 12, and since then he’s recovered quite a bit. There’s simply nothing in the last twelve days to indicate movement towards Romney."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-momentum-myth/2012/10/25/f7fc67a6-1eaf-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_blog.html#pagebreak
A large part of the mythology is the idea that Romney is about to surge across all the swing states. Basically, the idea is that he's locked up the South and will now take Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and maybe even Pennsylvania. It's a total urban legend. The odds are actually looking worse for Romney in Ohio and there's been no meaningful gains in Wisconsin lately.
And he hasn't even locked up Virginia. Far from it. In fact a PPP poll has Obama leading it now by 5 points-PPP has not been Democratic leaning until now, anyway. The TPM Poll Tracker now has Obama up by over 2 points in Virginia-similar to his Ohio margin-and Florida is basically tied:
"President Barack Obama's lead in Virginia has extended to 5 points, according to the latest survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released on Thursday.
"Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely Commonwealth voters 51 percent to 46 percent — a jump from PPP's survey of Virginia a week ago, which showed the president nursing a 2-point lead. More than half of Virginia voters, 51 percent, have a favorable opinion of Obama compared. Conversely, the same percentage has an unfavorable view of Romney."
"The poll also shows a pronounced gender gap in Virginia. Obama leads by 16 points among women voters in the state, while Romney holds a 5-point edge among men. Thursday's poll was conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, a group founded to promote the Affordable Care Act."
"The president's lead in Virginia is now a little more than 2 points, according to the PollTracker average, which places the battleground in the "leans Obama" column on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard."
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-crosses-50-percent-opens-up-5?ref=fpb
There's no sign in this poll that Romney has closed any gender gap ether-totally the opposite.
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