Obama Supporters: Come off the Ledge Redux

     No doubt a poll analyst like Nate Silver is right when he urges caution about reacting too much to any single poll right now as there is a lot of noise and uncertainty. Earlier this morning I urged Obama supporters to come back in off the ledge-we've got a good chance of rain today!

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/10/obama-supporters-come-in-off-ledge.html

      Just to demonstrate that we are getting different pictures depending on which polls you look at-the Pew Research poll seems to have been more backended for the initial reaction to the debate with less from after the encouraging numbers on last Friday's jobs report-the new Gallup numbers are up now. Not only do they show the President picking up two points on Romney among registered voters-going from leading 49-46 to 50-45; before the debate the number was 49-45.

      Yesterday, Gallup started running a 7 day tracking poll of likely voters. The first one showed Romney leading 49-47. Today's show it tied at 48 a piece.

       http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

       "Particularly encouraging is that the President's approval rating remains at a 53% approval of his job performance against only 42% disapproval. Obama had seen this start to bounce after the very successful Democratic convention. Interesting that this hasn't taken any hit subsequent to a debate that people felt Romney had blown away the President by close to a 3 to 1 margin."

       "Mitt Romney reached his highest personal popularity of the election campaign among registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll – but not by enough to lift his head above water, nor to surpass Barack Obama, who reached his own best favorability rating of the season.
Night-to-night data indicate a sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday."

        http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/a-popularity-high-for-romney-but-ditto-for-obama/

        Indeed, when the dust clears, Romney's still upside down in personal favorability.

         "The net effect is slight at best. Romney is now seen favorably by 47 percent of registered voters overall, unfavorably by 51 percent; Obama’s rating is better, 55-44 percent. Changes for both candidates from their pre-debate levels (Romney 44-49 percent, Obama 52-45 percent) are not statistically significant, given the surveys’ margin of sampling error."

       "Romney’s 47 percent favorability is numerically the most in 18 ABC/Post polls since September 2011. But he remains underwater for the 13th time in those 18 surveys. (He’s been above water three times, not since January, and even twice.)"

        Think that's enough to climb down off that ledge.