I say that because there is very little-unlike the first debate in Denver-that liberal Democrats like myself can complain the President failed to touch on last night at Hofstra. It was a very strong performance with the kind of high energy that was missing in Denver.
While scientific polls that gauged instant reaction after the debate, there is a good deal of variance between polls. The CBS poll of likely voters showed that viewers say he won by a 39-30 margin, while CNN's gauge of registered voters had a similar margin of 46-39. In some other polls the President actually had larger margins:
"Two other polls gave Mr. Obama a somewhat clearer advantage. A Battleground poll of likely voters in swing states who watched the debate had him winning 53-38."
"An online poll by Google Consumer Surveys gave Mr. Obama a 48 percent to 31 percent edge among registered voters."
"There were also two scientific surveys about the debate conducted among voters in particular states."
"A Public Policy Polling survey of Colorado voters who watched the debate found 48 percent declaring Mr. Obama the winner, and 44 percent for Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama’s advantage was clearer in the poll among independent voters, who gave him a 58-36 edge. However, the candidates were roughly tied when Public Policy Polling asked them how the debate swayed their vote, with 37 percent saying the debate made them more likely to vote for Mr. Obama, with 36 percent for Mr. Romney."
"Finally, a poll of California voters who watched the debate, conducted by SurveyUSA, found a 56-32 edge for Mr. Obama. It is no surprise that Mr. Obama won a poll of California voters, and the poll showed a tie, 44-44, among independents in California. Still, a similar poll of California voters by SurveyUSA had given an edge to Mr. Romney after the first debate."
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/17/instant-reaction-polls-show-narrow-obama-advantage-in-second-debate/
It seems that all the polls whether of likely or registered voters seem to be telling the same kind of story. The worst legacy of the President's lackluster first debate was that his supporters who had gotten very fired up after the convention in Charlotte got discouraged-a lot of them anyway, though not me. Hopefully this will bridge the enthusiasm gap-which would show in the registered and likely voter polls coming more in line as they were prior to Denver.
That the President had a good night is denied by no one, Even the RNC Chairman admits the President had a good night but that he won on style rather than substance. That's what Democrats were saying after debate 1. When you lose you say you lost on style.
No one claims that Romney had a phenomenal night, not even WSJ. And WSJ admits that his low point was Benghazi-which was supposed to be the President's lowest point of the night.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443675404578061320659607206.html
So what should we expect from the polls going forward? Time will tell but I think the President closed the deal last night. Steve Smith-the resident Republican at MSNBC-argues that if he had given this performance in Denver the race would be over. As it is, Smith thinks that even this may not be enough to quite Romney's surge before November 6.
I disagree with that. Smith is basically saying that Romney who has mostly run a very poor campaign and has done a very poor job explaining his policies-even the WSJ in the above link admits that Romney is at his worst when explaining why a plan of his will work-will win the election over one night? I don't think so. The questions that were raised in Denver were effectively answered last night.
My best guess is that Obama closed the deal-I'm presuming next Monday night's debate will go fine- and that last Friday night when Obama dropped to just over 60% chance of winning at FiveThirtyEightForecast was the nadir for Romney's bounce. The President should get a nice reversal and he will win this election.
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