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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Jobless Claims Drop to 339,000

     In another sign the labor market is improving-after last Friday's job numbers pushed the unemployment rate down to 7.8%, jobless claims were only 339,000 last week. When jobless claims are beneath 375,000, this is a sign that the market may be creating enough jobs to bring down the unemployment rate.

     "Weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in four years, while the U.S. trade deficit widened and import prices rose more than expected, according to economic numbers released Thursday."

      "The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid plummeted to 339,000 last week, the lowest level in more than four years. The sharp drop offered a hopeful sign that the job market could pick up."
 
      "The Labor Department said weekly applications fell by 30,000 to the lowest level since February 2008. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped by 11,500 to 364,000, a six-month low."

      "Applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they consistently drop below 375,000, it suggests that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate."

      http://www.cnbc.com/id/49371146

      There are some analysts who urge caution as one week could be noise though this comes on top of the drop to 7.8% However, even they admit that if next weeks numbers are as strong this would do a lot to confirm a trend.

      "But some economists said they want to see more data before suggesting the job market is turning around."

     "Should this level hold for another week, it would flag a meaningful improvement in October" hiring, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a note to clients.
 
      The 7.8% rate was the lowest since the President has been in office and this jobless number is the lowest since February, 2008 so it's getting tougher to argue that there aren't real signs of recovery.
 
      Looking forward to Mitt again trying to tell us that this is not what a real recovery looks like. If he had been in office we'd probably look more like David Cameron's Britain, mired in a double dip.
 
     Clinton had argued at the DNC that the foundation for growth is here it's just that many can't feel it yet. These numbers are helping some. You'd almost have to feel sorry for Romney as they're coming out at the worst time.
 
     Of course not only am I looking forward to Mitt's reaction but also that of Jack Welch.
 

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