No Question Today's Job Numbers are Very Encouraging

     Analysis of this kind of economic data usually requires caveats and today's do as well for sure. As the Obama Administration acknowledged, today's numbers are encouraging but there's still work to be done. Jared Bernstein says we're not wholly out of the woods yet. However, he finds them encouraging as well which is a good sign as he's not necessarily easy to please on job reports.

     "Payrolls grew by 114,000 last month and the unemployment rate ticked down significantly to 7.8% according to today’s jobs report from the BLS. That’s the lowest unemployment rate since January of 2009. Moreover, unlike last month’s report, September’s decline in the unemployment rate was due to more job seekers finding work, not giving up and leaving the labor market.
Both July and August’s jobs numbers were revised up significantly such that in the third quarter of the year, payrolls grew by to 146,000 per month on average, a notable acceleration over the second quarter’s growth pace of only 67,000 jobs per month (see figure).* A notable difference in this last quarter relative to the past few years is that the public sector, which has been consistently slashing payrolls even as the private sector was expanding, added jobs in each of the past three months.
All told, this report and the revisions paint a considerably better labor market picture than the last few reports. We’re not yet out of the labor market woods, and I’d like to see us moving more quickly, but we’re on the right path."

     http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/jobs-day-first-impressions-with-reflections-on-the-fiscal-cliff/

     Interesting too that this is the first jobs report since QE-Infinity. Not surprisingly Romney and his rich friends like Jack Welch are trying to tell us not to believe our lying eyes. After flagging the 8% number, now that number is artificial and not the real point.

     What is the real point is that the economy has been doing significantly better during the Summer than the one Romney was trying to run against:

     "The news indicates that the economy and the labor market performed significantly better over the course of the summer than initial reports suggested at the time. July payrolls were also revised significantly upward to a final figure of 181,000 new jobs."

     http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/economy-adds-tk-jobs-in-september.php?ref=fpa

      It's important that Romney not get away with his misleading comments today either.

      "Mitt Romney is out with a statement on the jobs numbers, which he characterizes as not good enough:

“This is not what a real recovery looks like. We created fewer jobs in September than in August, and fewer jobs in August than in July, and we’ve lost over 600,000 manufacturing jobs since President Obama took office. If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force, the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11%. The results of President Obama's failed policies are staggering – 23 million Americans struggling for work, nearly one in six living in poverty and 47 million people dependent on food stamps to feed themselves and their families. The choice in this election is clear. Under President Obama, we’ll get another four years like the last four years. If I’m elected, we will have a real recovery with pro-growth policies that will create 12 million new jobs and rising incomes for everyone.”

     "There's no question that the 8 percent talking point was useful to Romney. But ultimately, what will matter is how people feel about where their lives are - for those for whom things have improved, the figures may seem fine, and for those out of work or struggling, they won't."

      http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/?hp=bh

     I love how Maggie Habermas now thinks the 8% number doesn't matter. It mattered when we were over it but now that we're under it, what matters is something different. But Romney is not comparing apples to apples here and he must be called on it. He's comparing September's 114,000 preliminary number to the revised upward numbers of July and August. Indeed, the preliminary number of August was only 96,000 and Romney had a field day the day after the DNC convention belaboring it-though he got no benefit in the polls as the DNC gave the President a permanent jump.

    There's a world of difference between the initial 96,000 and the revised upwards 142,000 which is why economists always warn us against doing what Romney loves to do and make a federal case out of every individual jobs report-when the margin for error is 70,000 jobs!

     But it's another outrage for him to run around comparing Augusts final numbers to September's preliminary. Based on the trend we've seen over since July we might see another later upwards revision of this month even a significant one-August's revision was 56,000.