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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Darrell Issa: Smells Like Valerie Plame

      You'd think he might want to keep a low profile after the debacle of his hearings on the Benghazi attacks. but not Issa. He's onto the next crazy conspiracy theory-investigating September's job numbers.

      "When House Republicans called a hearing in the middle of their long recess, you knew it would be something big, and indeed it was: They accidentally blew the CIA’s cover:

       "In their questioning and in the public testimony they invited, the lawmakers managed to disclose, without ever mentioning Langley directly, that there was a seven-member “rapid response force” in the compound the State Department was calling an annex. One of the State Department security officials was forced to acknowledge that “not necessarily all of the security people” at the Benghazi compounds “fell under my direct operational control.”

      "And whose control might they have fallen under? Well, presumably it’s the “other government agency” or “other government entity” the lawmakers and witnesses referred to; Issa informed the public that this agency was not the FBI."

      "Other government agency,” or “OGA,” is a common euphemism in Washington for the CIA. This “other government agency,” the lawmakers’ questioning further revealed, was in possession of a video of the attack but wasn’t releasing it because it was undergoing “an investigative process.”

      "Republicans were aiming to embarrass the Obama administration over State Department security lapses. But they inadvertently caused a different picture to emerge than the one that has been publicly known: that the victims may have been let down not by the State Department but by the CIA. If the CIA was playing such a major role in these events, which was the unmistakable impression left by Wednesday’s hearing, having a televised probe of the matter was absurd."

       http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-letting-us-in-on-a-secret/2012/10/10/ba3136ca-132b-11e2-ba83-a7a396e6b2a7_story.html

       Good work Congressman Issa. What's next? Funny you ask:

       "The chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives is considering an investigation into the U.S. Labor Department's estimation of the national unemployment rate, The Huffington Post has confirmed."

        "Fox Business Network reported on Thursday that Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) plans to hold hearings on the September jobs numbers, which showed the unemployment rate had fallen to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent. HuffPost could not confirm whether the hearings would definitely happen or whether Issa was merely thinking it over."

       "The way it's being done with the constant revisions -- significant revisions -- tells us that it's not as exact a science as it needs to be," Issa told Fox. "We very much intend to work every day through the November and December time to get these kinds of things done ... this is an issue where I think our committee has important jurisdiction to make sure we get it right."

         http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/11/darrell-issa-jobs-report_n_1958510.html

         So let's get this straight: Issa believes this can and should be an exact science? This is all we need to know that his knowledge of this science is nowhere near what it should be fight now. Revisions are to be eliminated because they make Mitt Romney look silly when he goes on and on about job numbers that are later revised up? Sure. Let's legislate revisions out of economic forecasting.  That will make it a lot more accurate!      
       

      

       

2 comments:

  1. If the reported number of people unemployed (U3) is an estimate, the BLS should issue a "margin of error" with the number like the pollsters do. Then the data could/should be plotted with the error bands like is done in science articles. Don't report a single number, but a number with it's margin of error. 20121011

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  2. nj it's well known that the preliminary job numbers have a pretty large effective margin of error-about 70,000 up or down-so there's a 140,000 range.

    If you want a more explicit statement of being subject to margin for error-like the pollsters-that seems fine to me in principle.

    To be sure, it's mostly Mitt Romney who always takes isolated single month numbers like they're absoultely the final numbers. Until this month. Now they want an investigation.

    What was partiuclarly misleading of Romney last Friday was to compare the number-115,000-of that preliminary report with the revised August numbers that were revised all the way from 96,000 to 142,000.

    Maybe you are right but I have no doubt that Issa's motivations are not scientific.

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