Media is all in On Romney Debate Game Changer Narrative

     The media is just about unanimous about the idea that the game has changed thanks to Obama's lackluster first debate. Whether you're talking about Nate Silver, the National Journal, or Talking Points Memo that's all you can hear about.

     Silver is convinced that the bump is not fading. National Journal says Romney changed the election and even Josh Marshall's TPM had a piece today on describing what a Romney win would look like.

     http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-12-romney-debate-gains-show-staying-power/

     http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-there-s-no-question-romney-changed-the-game-20121011

     http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/what-does-a-winning-romney-majority-look-like.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

      So is there any good news for the President at all? Well what's been interesting is that in Gallup the news has been mostly good. His approval rating has mostly been about 50%. True it fell a little today but it's still at 48-46, that is right side up.

      The President's lead over Romney among registered voters is roughly in line with what it was before the debate. True, in the new likely voter polls Gallup started doing on Wednesday, Romney has been leading slightly-not everyday, some show a tie. This seems symptomatic of a problem that has come since the debate-Dem enthusiasm which had closed the gap in September vis a vis Republican enthusiasm, has been trailing again since the debate. Perhaps Biden's strong showing will begin to reverse this.

      The approval ratings we've seen in other polls suggest the same narrative as Gallup-that while people think the President lost the debate-and badly-they still approve of his job performance. Gallup today suggests that Romney's move-contrary to what Nate Silver is saying-may be mitigating.

      "Obama's slight 49% to 46% seven-day lead among registered voters is just about where it was in the seven days prior to the debate. This trend suggests that Romney's impressive debate performance -- 72% of debate watchers said he did the better job -- may not have a lasting impact. Additionally, Friday's generally positive jobs report from the government, showing that unemployment fell below 8% for the first time since January 2009, may have helped Obama's standing."

      "Although Gallup's main focus is on seven-day rolling averages, a breakdown of interviewing over shorter periods can be helpful in understanding the short-term impact of events like conventions and debates. As Gallup reported Monday, Romney gained ground among registered voters in the immediate aftermath of his Oct. 3 debate, moving from a five-point deficit prior to the debate to a tie in the three days that immediately followed. Most of that gain was driven by substantial Romney leads in the Thursday and Friday tracking."

     "Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading."

       http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

       Indeed, TPM's tracker now has seen Romney's number drop some in the electoral college. Just two days ago on Thursday night he had closed within 253-234. Now, however he's dropped back down to 253-206.

       The PollTracker has seen the President come back within 47.6%-46.4%. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Forecast also finally saw Romney's chances drop a little-that had gotten to almost 40% on Thursday now it's back down to under 38%. Not a big move and isn't yet conclusive but taken together this all seems to vouchsafe the Gallup narrative.

       Interestingly there's now a poll that shows Obama back in a 1 point lead in North Carolina, tying it back up in Colorado and even with a small lead in Arizona-this last one may very well prove to be nothing but an outlier.

       http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-significant-post-debate-shift-seen-in-north

        http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/whah.php?ref=fpblg

        It suggests that the state polls are all over the place right now and quite volatile. And Obama still at this point has Ohio firmly in hand. Between the better job and confidence numbers and Biden's strong showing I think the President can put this to be with a solid performance. I would caution though that they ready him for Benghazi-Romney will try to throw him off balance with that highly politicized issue-meant to suggest that things like this only happen during Democratic Presidencies, conveniently forgetting 9/11.

       Josh Marshall just posted a reader's comments that say it all very well:

       "I, too, have been agog at the number of folks on the left who are throwing up their hands and declaring Obama the second coming of Walter Mondale. Not just for policy reasons — though as someone who teaches courses on the presidency I think just about no one gives this president enough credit for what has been done on his watch — but because I wonder where they have been for the last four years."

       "Did they miss the racist emails, the snide Teleprompter jokes, the smug certainty among so many on the right that this administration is an accident, and that a black man isn’t REALLY president, just some sort of uncrowned caretaker? Do these folks really want their bigoted in-laws and racist YouTube commenters to have the satisfaction of having been right all along? Because that’s what they’ll take away from this. The amount of bedwetting panic on the left is pathetic. The president has approval and favorability ratings at or higher than 50%, the economy is growing, jobs are being created, and they’re going to write off the election because of one awful debate performance? It is mind-boggling."

       http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/rage.php?ref=fpblg

       It is mind-boggling. Really it's up to us, Democrats. It's our drop in enthusiasm that is showing in the polls. If what CG points out isn't enough to motivate you then you may not have much hope.

       Can we at a minimum have a moratorium on bed-wetting?