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Monday, October 17, 2011

NFL Week 6: They May Be Giants

  Talk about any given Sunday! After losing at home to a bad Seahawks team, yesterday they beat a good team in a tough down to the wire shootout 27-24; with Dallas falling 20-16 to the Patriots it was for me a perfect Sunday. Dallas did play well and I do think that of the 31 other teams they could have played New England may be the only team they couldn't beat with the effort they put out-only other team is maybe Green Bay. Of course the Giants also got some help from their arch rival Philadelphia who beat the formerly first place Redskins. With their win, the Giants have now take the top spot in the division with a 4-2 record nosing ahead of the Skins who fell to 3-2. Dallas fell to 2-3 and even with the win, the Eagles are still only 2-4.

    Overall it was a major improvement for the G-Men this week compared to last week, and indeed much of the season. This has been a strange year for the Giants. While they have won they are not winning the way the NY Giants are supposed to win. Coming into the game they were close to the bottom of the league in running offense and defense. Yet they have been winning. The unit that has been most consistent so far has definitely been the passing game.

    In this game the Giants led by Ahmed Bradshaw who had the breakout game he and the team needed,  the running game gained 122 yds on the ground-104 yds were Bradshaw's. They did not however superfically appear to get it done on the other side of the ball giving up 155 yds to Buffalo led by Fred Jackson who had 121 yds and a TD on only 16 carries. What's misleading though is that they gave up 80 yards to Fred Jackson on the first possession TD run for the Bills. After this they settled down.

     Very importantly, they did do a good job of holding onto the football which has been a problem, especially in last week's 36-25 loss to Seattle. After 3 picks last week-the last one at the end of the game which could have retaken the lead instead being run back 94 yds for a TD to ice the game for Seattle-Eli had no picks. There were also no fumbles by the team after a number of very costly fumbles last week.
    In a way it's amazing this team is 4-2. As we observed above this is not supposed to be how the N.Y. Giants win football. It's not really the way anyone is supposed to win football. This is a team that ranks-including yesterday's game-26th rushing the football (90.2/gm; we are hoping Bradshaw's breakout game is the start of this number rising) but on defense, they are 24th defending the run (127.7/gm), 16th against the pass (245.8) and 20th overall (373.5); overall they are 24rd in the N.F.L allowing 24.5 points per game. Statistically these are very poor defensive numbers. The only thing they do well from a statistical standpoint is pass the ball-their 278.2 yds per game is 7th in the league and their overall all points per game are 25.7 in the league for 9th. That this is only good for 9th is symptom of how offensive the league has become in recent years; there have been years in the past where this would have been good enough to lead the league. I for one like offense and  applaud this tendency. Certainly I prefer an offensive league to a defensive league like the N.B.A became for so many years starting in the early 90s.

     The question begs how the Giants manage to win so much with numbers like this. Partly ,of course, is that a football team is more than its statistics. The winner is not always the team that gets more yards or even runs for more yards-though the latter is generally the case. Interestingly though most weeks the team that runs the ball wins the games at least two thirds of the time two teams that have played well, the Giants and Packers have won despite neither averaging as much as 100 yds per game-the limitation of stats in action  Actually last year for the most of the season the Giants were near the top of the league in most offensive and defensive categories but clearly it didn't help them. As far as this year's team is concerned it must be kept in mind how many injuries they have had early, notably in particular the heart and should of their defense, Justin Tuck. Tuck is said to be likely to come back after next week's bye in time for the Miami game in 2 weeks.

    In the meantime their 4-2 start is a testimony to this team's heart and versatility-and you have to think that the league is in trouble when they get these key players back if this is how they've played shorthanded. What has helped them has been this heart and versatility; in addition while the defense has give up a lot of yards they have been better when they have needed to be. Often when they really need a big play they get it-a stop, an interception, a forced fumble. Yesterday it was Corey Webster's 2 key interceptions especially the late one with under 5 minutes where he picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick on the 4 yard line. This would lead to a good drive by the Giants spearheaded by Ahmad Bradshaw who came back from an early season which has seen his production down to have the kind of big day the Giants needed right then. He had 104 yds on 26 carries and the three 1 yard TD runs.

   Even without Tuck and other injuries this is not an easy defense for opposing QBs to face just ask Michael Vick. Yesterday they sacked the high performing Fitzpatrick 3 times. The defense may have sub par statistics 6 games into the season but it is not a sub par unit.

   The third element the G-men have had early is Eli Manning and his receivers particularly Cruz. While Manning didn't have a TD pass yesterday for the first time this season-he was probably happy about this as it gave Bradshaw a chance to break out-he had no picks and on the year has only 5 against 11 TD passes. His projected full season numbers having played almost 40 percent of the season is 29 TDs with only 13 picks. This is more in line with his larger trend since throwing 20 interceptions in the Super Bowl season of 2007; in 2008 he had only 10 picks against 21 TDs and in 2009 it was 14 to 27. Last year's 25 was an aberration and while it led the league and was a career record, he also set a record with 31 TDs. After 6 games he is on his way to his third straight year of over 4000 yds, this year he's actually on pace to shatter his record in 2009 (4021) with 4800. He is averaging just under 300 yds per game after averaging 250 the last 2 years. By comparison in the Super Bowl year (2007) he averaged just 208 per game.

    What's more his completion rate is at it's highest of his career this year with a 64 percent rate, this will be his 4th straight year staring in 2008 that he has had a rate over 60 percent; in the Super Bowl year it was 56. Lastly his QB rating has continually risen throughout his career; in 2007 it was 73, starting with 2008 he has never dipped below an 80 QB rating again, this year's 101 blows his previous high of 95 in 2009 out of the water. I feel I have to point this out to all the Eli naysayers.

    Yesterday's game was a great all around effort, in many ways the best game they've played all year in terms of balance. While they gave up 155 yds to Buffalo-121 from Fred Jackson, 80 came from that early play where on the first drive he took the ball and ran 80 yds for a TD. After this the Giants limited him to 27 yds the rest of the half and 14 in the second. Similarly they also gave up on the very next drive a 60 yd TD pass from Fitzpatrick to Naaman Roosevelt for a second TD on the Bills first two possessions. For the rest of the game the defense came back from these early breakdowns in coverage; while they weren't perfect- they gave up the 24-17 lead and almost fell behind before Corey Webster redeemed his getting burned for the game tying pass by picking of Fitzpatrick on the 4.

    Overall a Giant victory and some good reasons for hope and optimism both on their overall play and the return of some of the injured.

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