The NFL After 4 Weeks

     Last week I suggested that football fans take a look at the Massey-Peabody power rankings started by "Cade Massey, an assistant professor at the Yale School of Management, and Rufus Peabody, a Las Vegas sports analyst."

     For the post please see http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2011/09/does-wall-street-journal-have-best-nfl.html

    It is featured on a weekly basis in the Wall Street Journal. I will again suggest that you do so, whether you bet on games or are just a fan-as I am; I don't really like the idea of betting on football as I don't need it to enjoy it and it sort of ruins it for me to have money on the line. I save my betting for poker or the stock market, or I would if I had any money...

    What is intriguing about this system is that not only does it do quite well against the Vegas odds makers but it really does anticipate and do more than just tell you what you already know. While the ranking system is based wholly on 2011 performance-which takes bias and prejudice out of the equation; while we may have a hard time believing in the Bills, Lions or Raiders (because we factor past performance prominently in our analysis)  MPPR has no such problem as it ranked before yesterday's games all 3 teams in the top 10: 4th, 9th and 7th respectively-it is nevertheless able to make predictions that do more than just reflect the expectations fallacy(which is very hard for us to avoid in predicting the future)of assuming the future will look largely like the present.

    This is far less true for the popular Vegas line we are familiar with. For the most part if a 5-0 team plays an 0-5 team we will usually assume the 5-0 team will mop the floor with them though we do factor some for certain externalities like injuries, strength of schedule etc. Consider though that the Jets after two weeks were not very highly regarded by MP even though they were 2-0 with a 59-27 point differential fresh of a 32-3 victory over the Jaguars after beating Dallas 27-24 week 1. This is what I mean by anticipatory: they were able to take a team that was winning and also highly regarded by most of the sports media and the fans and predict that they were not nearly as good as their record and early performance would seem to indicate.

    As the Wall Street brokers always warn you after pitching you on equities, past performance is no guarantee of future results. MP gives a system that does more than simply try to diving the future based on past results. A skill very important not just to NFL predictions but economic forecasting-including our own "micro level forecasting" in making economic decisions with regard to our own lives.

   In week 3 of course, the Jets fell 34-24 to the Raiders and many feel they were in fact "exposed." This loss bounced them from middle of the pack at 15th (and a negligible .38 rating: that's the expected point differential for the Jets against an average team on a neutral field) to the bottom  third at 21st with a rating that was negative at -.74(and this is prior to their 34-17 loss to the Raiders on Sunday night).

   So if you had read Massey-Peabody ratings you would not be surprised by their fall the last 2 weeks. Last week's WSJ piece discussed that while the Jets were falling in ranking the Giants were rising.

   "The Jets and Giants moved in opposite directions in the latest Massey-Peabody Power Rankings. While the 21st-ranked Jets are 2-1 heading into Sunday night's showdown against the third-ranked Ravens in Baltimore, their current level of play predicts a losing record for the balance of the season. Their offense is 24th in converting first downs or effectively setting up the next down, Massey-Peabody's most heavily-weighted statistic."

    "The Giants rose to eighth after their a win last week in Philadelphia. Viewed as a major upset in most quarters, Massey-Peabody last week ranked Big Blue as better on a neutral field. The Eagles are looking nothing like the "Dream Team," sinking to 17th. The Cardinals, whom the Giants face on the road Sunday, actually grade as the tougher opponent."

     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576601271049696718.html

    Again even that is a little eerie no? The Gaints did have to come back late against the Cardinals (31-27)while almost doubling up Philly (29-16).

   I have to admit that I'm a Giants fan and the rankings are pretty efficacious for me right now. Take the Jets' defeated opponent of Week 1-Dallas who they beat 27-24.

   Coming into yesterday Dallas too had a plummeting ranking. While they had regrouped from the Jets loss to win the next two weeks against the 49ers and Skins they still went into yesterday's major fold against the Lions-a blown 24-0 lead-with a ranking only slightly better than the Jets at 19th with a -.24 rating. The Eagles-before their 24-23 loss to San Fran-were only slightly better than the Cowboys at 17 with a rating of only .30. These are 3 teams that started out the year with some wins and were highly regarded by most sports watchers.

    Though it does give me aid and comfort as a Giants fan right now-we were 8th before this weeks comeback against Arizona,can't wait to see where we are now-last year it didn't rank the Jints so highly even during their fast start while it ranked the Jets higher. In any case Massey-Peabody  does seem to be the real deal.