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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Demand for Durable Goods "Mostly" Higher

    I guess that's "mostly" good then! There have been some positive signs lately that the economy may be starting to do a little better. In recent weeks unemployment claims have been down, though still not enough to conclusively bring the unemployment rate down.

   The consensus view of economists has now risen to 2.5 percent for the third quarter which would be almost double the 1.3 percent rate during the second quarter.

    Now a new report out today shows most durable goods having higher demand.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/45044666

    "Demand for a range of long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose more than expected in September to post the largest increase in six months, cementing views of a step-up in economic growth in the third quarter, even though new orders for transportation equipment fell."

     http://www.cnbc.com/id/45044666

     New orders for transportation fell, that's where we get the "mostly."

    "The Commerce Department said on Wednesday durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 1.7 percent after falling 0.4 percent in August. The rise beat economists expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. "

     So a rise in durable goods excluding transportation rose 1.7 percent. However if we don't exclude transportation, there was actually a net drop in durable goods demand of .8 percent.

     "The tenor of the report was further strengthened by a 2.4 percent jump in non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending. That was the largest increase since March. "

     "The report was further evidence that economic activity picked up in the third quarter after a weak first half. Though manufacturing has slowed in recent months, the September durable goods report pointed to underlying resilience."

     Look, I'll take it where I can get it. There are some so cynical that they can't ever believe good news. I'm actually fairly cynical myself. Having said that I believe that pessimism isn't always right either. Right now consumer confidence is at it's lowest point in 3 years-taking us back to the time when the economy was shedding 750,000 jobs a month. Yet actually consumer spending has been dipping up. I myself have even been doing a little consumer spending of my own-more than I should be actually, which is always how it goes. Fingers crossed I may even have work soon-a few good prospects. If you are in the same boat as me and millions of other Americans, consider security. It is one market that is hiring and often even has a decent wage, though it varies.

    If that sounds dangerous to you, it really isn't, unless you go out of the way to look for armed guard positions. Many jobs are little more than a kind of public relations. That's what most security is. On a different tack, you might consider teaching. I recently took the New York state teacher's assistant exam. I just got my results and I did pretty good, so I now have my license. Of course the proof is in the pudding here-let;'s see how quick I get a TA job.

    Failing that, there are sales jobs. These vary. There are out and out scams and many "packages" that grossly overstate the possibilities. At best there are those jobs that, if you sell of course, you can make pretty good money at. Generally a rule of thumb is that if they aren't going to give you a decent drawer through at least the first month it isn't even worth trying. I know this is not for everyone-nothing is-but the one virtue here is that there is not a high bar to entry. Any way good luck to us all and God Speed Occupy Wall Street! I am not so pessimistic as to not believe that we will make it one way or the other.

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