I say this as an-unhappy Knicks fan.
https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/sacramento-kings-new-york-knicks-2015030318/
Hopefully things will get better in the next few years but right now the knock on Phil is he's a little too impressed with himself and his brilliant system-the Triangle Offense. Sure it worked in Chicago and LA but he had Jordan and Pippen with the Bulls and Shaq and Kobe with the Lakers.
Chip Kelly seems to think that he's this offensive genius who anyone can be brought in to fill in. Part of his trade of LeSean McCoy for Bills linebacker Kiko Alonso might be part of a recent deavluing of RBs in the NFL market.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/03/in-todays-nfl-running-backs-get-no.html
However, a big part of it is that Chip wants his system and his guys-which all seemed to have play with the Oregon Ducks. Look I think that Kelly made a bad trade here-I think the Bills do a lot better and for that reason I'll look at the argument some are making that Kelly made a good deal. So I'll try to look at the counterpoint argument before I argue for my point.
"Gloat away, but the truth is that McCoy looked like a shell of his once-dominant self for a sizable portion of last season. He got better as the 2014 season went on, but his conventional numbers were a lot more in line with his injury-marred 2012 campaign than his superhuman 2013 — and that’s to say nothing of his advanced metrics in 2014."
So right now-and this is in foresight; hindsight is 20-20 but foresight is about 20-200-Rex has clearly improved his team; yes they need a QB but they aren't going to get a franchise QB this year, none are available. I think it's premature saying the Bills can win the division-after all, Tom Brady is not retiring-but it makes a team better that must missed the playoffs last year and has a very strong defense.
The Eagles though I'm not sure about. I think that on a value basis it's not a great deal straight up. McCoy has a tremendous body of work and surely has 4 more good years. Alonso is a real risk. I don't know what the shelf life of LBs are supposed to be but he's largely an unproven entity.
Time may show this to be a good move but right now I have some real doubts. If I were an Eagles fan I don't know that I'd be happy today. As a Giants fan I kind of think I'm the one who lucked out.
Some argue both Rex and Chip made a good deal.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25092002/grade-the-trade-lesean-mccoy-to-bills-kiko-alonso-to-eagles
That's what the economists call comparative advantage where both sides win. It's clearer in my mind that Rex did.
https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/sacramento-kings-new-york-knicks-2015030318/
Hopefully things will get better in the next few years but right now the knock on Phil is he's a little too impressed with himself and his brilliant system-the Triangle Offense. Sure it worked in Chicago and LA but he had Jordan and Pippen with the Bulls and Shaq and Kobe with the Lakers.
Chip Kelly seems to think that he's this offensive genius who anyone can be brought in to fill in. Part of his trade of LeSean McCoy for Bills linebacker Kiko Alonso might be part of a recent deavluing of RBs in the NFL market.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/03/in-todays-nfl-running-backs-get-no.html
However, a big part of it is that Chip wants his system and his guys-which all seemed to have play with the Oregon Ducks. Look I think that Kelly made a bad trade here-I think the Bills do a lot better and for that reason I'll look at the argument some are making that Kelly made a good deal. So I'll try to look at the counterpoint argument before I argue for my point.
"Gloat away, but the truth is that McCoy looked like a shell of his once-dominant self for a sizable portion of last season. He got better as the 2014 season went on, but his conventional numbers were a lot more in line with his injury-marred 2012 campaign than his superhuman 2013 — and that’s to say nothing of his advanced metrics in 2014."
"This past season, Football Outsiders’ DVOA rated McCoy as below-average — the 24th-most efficient back in the NFL — and play-by-play grades from Pro Football Focus were even harsher. Among the 57 halfbacks qualified for PFF’s overall leaderboard, McCoy ranked 55th, the product of ranking 36th in rushing, 34th in blocking and dead last (by no small margin, either) in the passing game. To say it wasn’t Shady’s best season would be a major understatement."
"Then there’s the matter of his age. McCoy will be 27 next season, which sounds relatively young to you and me (well, maybe to me at least), but the peak age for a RB is 26, after which it’s all downhill for the average ball carrier. The average runner comparable to McCoy in terms of Approximate Value (AV) through age 26 ended up producing 40 more AV over the rest of his career. At McCoy’s career rate of AV per year, that’s about four more decent years at most before he would ostensibly hang up his cleats forever."
"And don’t discount the value of good teammates, either. Pro Football Focus graded the Eagles’ offensive line as the best run-blocking unit in football last year. Guess who ranked last?"
"Yep — Buffalo."
"For his part, Alonso may have missed all of 2014 with an injury, but he’ll only be 25 next season. When healthy, he ranked as the 9th-best inside linebacker of 2013, per Pro Football Focus. One more thing: the deal freed up a ton of cap space for Philadelphia."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/pointcounterpoint-chip-kelly-is-a-genius-and-rex-ryan-is-insane/
I don't know where all those fancy stats come from-all this DVOA and PFF stuff. Maybe he was ranked 55th by PFF and 24th with DVOA but where did he rank in simple rushing yards?
He was a shell of his former self?! I don't see any big fall off. In 2013 when he led the league, he had over 1600 yards, but last year he still had over 1300. They make it sound like he can't play anymore or he's over the hill. He's 26 and Alonso is 25 and they make it sound as if he's an old man and Alonso is a young buck.
Meanwhile. Alonso is a consierable risk: he had a good rookie campaign but he has now missed two years with different ACL tears. I don't get the level of confidence in him. Where does he place on PFF and DVOA?
Kelly may be going too far in his belief in his system-a la Phil Jackson. The main thing he got with the deal is cap space-as we don't know about Alonso who is a total wild card. I think the risks with him are at least as much as with McCoy in terms of health and longevity.
It's all well and good to have cap space but you have to actually do something with it as Idzik shows. Here is the counterargument:
"Let’s take a look at the AFC East in 2014. You’re Rex Ryan. You’ve got Bill Belichick, the Mozart to your Salieri, dominating your division. You get canned by the New York Jets — hey, whatever, things happen. You take over the Buffalo Bills, an organization not totally dissimilar from the Jets. What do you fix first?"
"The Bills were incapable of getting a first down on the ground last year. Last year Buffalo had 186 first downs by passing, but just 65 by rushing. In the same year, the Jets — the Jets! — had 154 first downs by passing, 112 by rushing. That’s with Geno Smith as quarterback, too. The fact is that the only thing worse than Buffalo’s passing game is their rushing game."
"The Bills are a dumpster fire behind center and have been for years. That’s not a problem you fix in your first year on the job. The Billsdon’t have a first-round draft pick this year. Sure you might get lucky, but Buffalo will not have a solid quarterback for three years at best."
"So in order to survive your next year — because let’s be real, the passing game isn’t going to get better — you need to have weapons that aren’t a quarterback. You need an running back, ideally a proven one. And you only need him for a few years. Neil, you think he’s got four years left in him? Sounds great for the Bills. Running backs are replaceable, but that’s an issue for another year with a better pick. This is not an investment that needs to go places. It needs to get Buffalo through the next two years. It buys them time."
"Is McCoy past his prime? Probably. But whatever. Last year the Bills defense ranked 4th place in yards per game. Even without Alonso, they ranked 11th in the league when it came to stopping the rush,and third in the league when it came to disrupting passers. Would this defense be better with him? Oh, definitely. But they’re already pretty good, and a great defense is less meaningful when a team has a flaccid offense. McCoy changes that."
"Plus, let’s think of cap space as the finite, tradable asset it truly is. Chip Kelly needed cap space. That’s worth something. Rex knows that. This means that, from a negotiating standpoint, McCoy is equal to Alonso plus a bunch of cap space to each participant in the negotiation."
"Still, my personal conspiracy theory is that Giants head coach Tom Coughlin just paid a bunch of Rex Ryan’s parking tickets after he left town, and all this is just him returning the favor by keeping Shady out of the NFC East."
The last conspiracy theory makes the most sense!
I think what happened here has a lot to do with Kelly wanting his system. Clearly the owner, Bob Lurie, believes in him. This move for the Bills is a good one. Is it good for the Eagles-many have their doubts. By itself the deal could seem to make sense-at least to clear cap space, but put it together with last year's move with DeSean Jackson you begin to wonder what Chip Kelly's issue is:
Separate from each other, the decision to move on from each makes sense.
"Jackson was a problem in the locker room and came with plenty of off-the-field concerns.
McCoy is a running back with 1,761 career touches that had a cap hit of $11.6 million.
By themselves, they are defensible. Combined, however, they show that owner Jeffrey Lurie has about as much trust in a head coach as an owner can have."
"Kelly didn't just trade away a player on Tuesday, he moved on from the team's all-time leading rusher. He did so before that player hit rock bottom, as McCoy was third in the NFL in rushing last season. For all of his flaws, McCoy is still arguably the best running back the team has ever had. That shouldn't be glossed over when thinking of the impact of this move."
"Combined with Jackson, Kelly has moved on from two pretty dynamic players. The release of Jackson and McCoy removes a combined 4,952 yards from the past two seasons, roughly a third of the 13,024 total yards Kelly's offense has gained in the NFL. Of the team's 21 plays over 50 yards, Jackson and McCoy combined for seven, and racked up 25 total touchdowns."
"That is a lot of offense to get rid of with the intention of making the team better."
"Last season, Kelly's offense hardly missed a beat with Jackson no longer with the team, as they gained only 328 more yards with Jackson on the field in 2013 than they did without him in 2014. They did, however, miss the playoffs."
"How much Jackson contributed to that fate can be debated, but it certainly didn't make the decision to let his Pro Bowl receiver walk away for nothing look like a stellar one."
"Even with the team missing the playoffs, and the release of Jackson, Lurie felt confident enough in the direction of the team that he removed general manager Howie Roseman, giving control to Kelly."
"Kelly isn't on a short lease by any means, but you have to wonder how Lurie will feel if the decision to move on from McCoy works out the same way the decision to release Jackson did.
If the Eagles miss the playoffs next season and the running game struggles, like the deep passing game did without Jackson, will Lurie begin to have his doubts about handing over control to Kelly? Will he stop giving his head coach/general manager a blank check and pre-approval on any roster decision?"
http://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/2015/03/jeffrey_lurie_shows_complete_confidence_in_chip_ke.html
That's my thought exactly: it's like the Niners pushing Jim Harbaugh out the door: they better win after getting rid of someone that successful and the Eagles better win after all Kelly's moves that seem to downsize their offense.
I'd also say the Cowboys may regret DeMarco as well. However, there is a real feeling that running backs aren't as valuable.
http://www.steelerslounge.com/2010/08/running-backs-fungible/
The Eagles though I'm not sure about. I think that on a value basis it's not a great deal straight up. McCoy has a tremendous body of work and surely has 4 more good years. Alonso is a real risk. I don't know what the shelf life of LBs are supposed to be but he's largely an unproven entity.
Time may show this to be a good move but right now I have some real doubts. If I were an Eagles fan I don't know that I'd be happy today. As a Giants fan I kind of think I'm the one who lucked out.
Some argue both Rex and Chip made a good deal.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25092002/grade-the-trade-lesean-mccoy-to-bills-kiko-alonso-to-eagles
That's what the economists call comparative advantage where both sides win. It's clearer in my mind that Rex did.
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