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Thursday, June 7, 2012

Fed Approves Tougher Capital Standards, Bank Stocks Slip

       The day started on the upswing with the surprise announcement of China of a rate cut and the anticipated appearance of Bernanke before Congress.

       Yesterday the market had it's best day of the year and went back to being up for the year with the comments by Janet Yellen that suggested there could be more easing. However the market was somewhat disappointed when Bernanke basically reiterated what he's already said namely that if the economy takes a hit more could be on the table but that basically they aren't there yet.

        At the end of the day the Fed announced that it would go through with the tougher new capital standards under Basel III without softening certain provisions as the big banks had hoped.

         "The Federal Reserve released a proposal to enact an international agreement on higher capital standards for banks, known as Basel III, that largely rejects pleas by the U.S. banking industry to soften parts of the new standards."

          "The move, which came just before the market close, pushed financial stocks lower, including Bank of America [BAC 7.42 -0.22 (-2.88%) ] and Morgan Stanley [MS 13.41 -0.53 (-3.8%) ] ."

          "U.S. banks had pushed the Fed to allow them to more heavily count mortgage servicing rights and the unrealized gains and losses of certain securities toward their capital requirements than allowed by Basel III, but the U.S. central bank's draft rule closely follows the international agreement. "

         "The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and the Comptroller of the Currency are expected to approve the proposal soon as well. "

          "The Basel agreement is the cornerstone of efforts by international regulators following the 2007-2009 financial crisis to make sure the global banking system is more resilient."

           "The new standards would force banks to rely more on equity than debt to fund themselves, so that they are able to better withstand significant losses."

           http://www.cnbc.com/id/47726367

           "Banks have mostly agreed this minimum level is necessary. The biggest banks, however, have balked at a part of the agreement to have 28 global "systemic" banks hold as much as an additional 2.5 percent capital buffer."

             "This provision would hit the largest international financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase [JPM 32.81 -0.26 (-0.79%) ] , Goldman Sachs Group [GS 94.00 -0.96 (-1.01%) ] and Deutsche Bank [DB 35.83 -0.05 (-0.14%)  "

              "U.S. regulators had delayed putting this rule into place because the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial oversight law bans the use of work done by credit rating agencies in U.S. banking regulations, including those that assess bank capital. The agencies have struggled to find alternatives."
             "Banks have argued that some of the substitutes for credit ratings included in a proposed rule released in December will not be effective."
              "For instance, they have questioned whether relying on ratings from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to gauge the riskiness of sovereign debt will work."
              "In the proposed final rule released on Thursday the Fed rejected this concern and said regulators will use OECD ratings."

               So there you go. Is this good news? Well clearly the banks didn't like it and investors sold away right off. Still it seems to me as bad a rap as regulation often gets it may well offer significant externality benefits.

               In time maybe it will offer a measure of confidence for investors to invest more. It has been argued that part of the problem since 2008 is that trust has been wholly lost in the system.

6 comments:

  1. Still think BAC is a good bet? I don't. How much exposure do US banks have in European financial issues? Who knows? There isn't any real transparency anymore. It's good to see that someone is making capital requirements stronger. I remember when Basel III was announced and Jamie Dimon was calling the requirement for increased reserves "unAmerican." He's been pretty quite of late. Can't figure out why.

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  2. Well that's an interesting question.

    First of all, I don't think the biggest threat is that US banks are exposed to Europe but rather more broad concerns of contagion in the real economy.

    While we've been recovering slowly the question begs if we couuld withstand a bad recession in Europe. You wonder how much of the recent weaker numbers are becuase of Europe.

    Have to say that as low as Bank of America is I have to think "buying opportunity" how much lower can it get?

    If Bernanke could say something to give the market reason for optimism or for that matter Europe could do something-the help for Spain's banks are a start-just some reason for optimism you will see Bank of America at least go back to $9.50.

    Right now you can get even a BAC call for next January at $.24 each-10 would cost just #240. Or you can go closer for like August and it's a $9 call is just $.13-10 for $130.

    Or go conseravtive and just by the stocks-I don't usually like buy and hold but it's obviously safer.

    You could buy 30 shares for $210 today. At $7 how much more downside can there be in BAC? Unless you belive the ecoomy won't come back it will have to get up there again. It has rallied back to $21 in 2010. I'd say you have to think by 2014 it gets back there or our future is truly toast anyway.

    So yeah because it's so cheap it's stil very tempting. the troulbe is as always timing. That's why buying and holding is the safest strategy. What you get is a high percentage saving account. The down side can't be that big. I mean even if it fell to $5 you'd still have plenty of capital. And at some point it will come back.

    This conversation is making me wish I had cash!

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  3. Mike,
    I didn't say the biggest threat to US banks is exposure to Europe. I'm just pointing out that if things get ugly over there, there will be a spill over effect here. Again, who knows what level of exposure the TBTF's have in Europe? How low can BAC go? Can you say bankrupt? Another financial crisis coupled with the lunatics running the asylum, will not bode well for the likes of BAC. I sold BAC at 32.00 when it was still paying a dividend. This was right after they purchased Countrywide. Brilliant move. I see the temptation at the current price, but if you had cash, I'd advise you to hold on to it, if you are thinking of this play. Buy Popeye's futures. lol.

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  4. Nanute, now you're making me hungry. Certainly you were right to get out of BAC when you did. At this level there's not much risk but I don't have the kind of cash to make even a low cost play.

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  5. Have you heard about Ed Butowsky opinion about Bernanke Testimony? You can watch his video here.

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