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Saturday, June 23, 2012

Obama Widens Latino Voting Gap

     That's saying a lot. He already had a huge lead but his recent Executive Order that allowed immigrants under 30 that meet certain requirements stay in the country has taken it to a whole new level.

     What has really changed is the intensity. Obviously Obama haters aren't going to change but it does something about the famous "enthusiasm gap."

      "A survey of swing-state Latinos released Friday showed Obama ahead by 36 percentage points among Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia, with his most substantial leads in Arizona, Colorado and Nevada."

     "The move’s popularity in Florida, where a heavy contingent of Latinos are either Cuban, who are legal residents upon reaching U.S. shores, or Puerto Rican, who are citizens from birth, is less than in other states."

    “The people that don’t like him aren’t going to look at him differently after this anyway,” said state Rep. Luis Garcia, one of three Hispanic Democrats in the state Legislature. “The people he’s looking out for are the ones who are borderline.”

    "In Florida, Obama leads Romney by 16 percentage points among Hispanics — a sizable amount, but not the 48-point margin he has in Colorado, where state Rep. Dan Pabon said the president’s announcement has already spurred more enthusiasm."

    “More people are willing to knock on doors, make phone calls, I mean, it’s actually had a marked change in not just, ‘I support the president,’ but ‘All right, I’ll pick up the phone now, I’ll knock on a door now, I will donate now,” said Pabon, who estimated 70 percent of the conference attendees are Democrats. “It’s really unleashed another level of support for the president.”

     "And that gap played out here. As Romney took the stage, many in the audience didn’t stand or applaud, and many of his usual applause lines received no reaction from the crowd. At times he paused awkwardly, appearing to expect a reaction but not getting one."

     "When the former Massachusetts governor — who like Obama is used to delivering remarks to friendly audiences — offered his oft-used and generally most well-received line about repealing “Obamacare,” only a small fraction of the audience applauded and one man booed.
Obama, upon taking the stage, received the standing ovation. He said, in Spanish, that it is good to be among friends."

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77749_Page2.html#ixzz1ydgDKVhL

     This is really going to hurt Romney. He has no answer for this. He can try to argue that there was something somehow unfair about the President's EO but it's fairly hollow as the Congressional Republicans have blocked anything he might have tried to do in Congress. Indeed Rubio has now given up on his Dream Act Lite bill but even before it was going nowhere in Congress. It's very hard to see how Romney can win with such bad numbers among Hispanics.

     Ironically as unpopular as President George W. Bush was he always did well with Latinos who appreciated his mangled Spanish, etc. In Texas Republicans seem to have a somewhat better relationship with the Latino community. Yet in the primary Romney had savaged Rick Perry for having more immigrant friendly policies. Bush got 40% of the Hispanic vote; that is large part accounts for the difference between him and the drop for McCain in 2008 who got only 31%. There seems to be no path to victory if he can't get these numbers up. And there seems no path to getting the numbers up.

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