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Friday, January 23, 2015

Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl Classic Great Offense vs. Great Defense

     It's a classic matchup in the NFL. The unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. So who wins? In my previous post I mentioned that book by Brian O'Leary on Spygate he wrote in 2011 basically claiming that the Patriots win so much because they steal opposing teams' signals.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/01/tom-bradys-right-delfated-footballs-are.html

    This review wasn't so impressed with O'Leary's book calling him a 'nut' who made absurd claims.

     http://thebiglead.com/2012/10/21/a-nut-case-has-spent-30000-to-write-a-book-about-how-statistics-prove-the-patriots-are-still-cheating/

     Certainly some of what O'Leary said was more believable than some other things he said. He pointed as one piece of 'evidence' the fact that in 2004, the Indianapolis Colts-who always struggled with the Pats, certainly in Peyton Manning's time; even more in Andrew Lucks' time; I guess you'd have to say that he has been luckless against the Pats! Had to go there, sorry-were a super high octane offense during the 2004 season and yet were shutdown by the Pats in the AFC championship game, 20-3.

    It is interesting. I remember that game too. The Colts led the NFL with 522 regular season points and yet got held to just the 3 in the Title game. It wasn't shocking that the Colts lost but it was a little how the Pat just stuffed them there-which is why O'Leary claims it's because they had stolen the Colts' offensive signals and so beating them was much easier; though one complicating argument of O'Leary-and I am just stating his theory here, certainly not advocating it-is that no other team in the NFL would have gained as much at the Pats did by stealing their opponents signals as the Patriots-Bellichick,ie but even more this mysterious guru he hangs with, Ernie Adams-simply knows how to  read signals much better than other teams would.

   Putting aside such conspiracy theories, it was a surprising outcome to see a high octane offense shutdown like that. Yet, NFL history shows it's not uncommon. Based on history, it's more the rule than the exception. In big games, defense tends to trump defense. Even now that it's such and offensively spectacular league. Think about it: last year's Peyton Manning lead Broncos set a record in points scored with 606 points and yet lost to the Seahawks 43-8.

   That record by the Broncos actually broke a previous record by the Patriots record setting 2007 team that had the first 16-0 regular season in history and set a then record of 589 points. Of course my Giants beat them 17-14 ruining perfection.

   For that matter the Patriots and Giants followed an uncannily similar script in 2011 with similar results. That year's Patriots team was scored 'only' 513 points which was only 3rd in the NFL that year but still an awful lot and the Giants again upended them 21-17 in the Super Bowl-after beating them in an almost carbon copy game in the regular season 24-20 in New England. Apparently the Pats aren't able to beat the G-Men even after allegedly stealing their signals...

   The pattern holds as you increase the data. In 1998 the Minnesota Vikings during Randy Moss' first season set a then record of 559 points during a 15-1 regular season but lost the NFC championship game to Atlanta. Moss then was on two teams that were unbeaten of lost just a game that set a record in points yet were disappointed.

   In 1983 the Redskins set a then record of 541 points during the regular season then lost to the Raiders 38-9 in the Super Bowl.

   The team that scores the most points during the regular season very often loses for whatever reason. What the Giants did do right in both wins over NE is get lots of pressure on Brady he doesn't do that well under pressure. The Seahawks are kind of known for pressure so you'd expect them to be able to do it here against Brady as well.

    If I were betting on the game-which I might do in fact-it'd be tempting to get Seattle for the game, but the Patriots for the first half and the Hawks in the second as well as this has been Seattle's pattern. Last week was extreme in falling behind 16-0 but typical as they usually start slow, don't score many points in the first half but come on strong in the second half. Seattle looks like the prefect team to play the Pats as they should give Brady a hard time. 

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