Not to toot my own horn but this is largely how I had predicted it going. Ah, what the hey: toot, toot! For more on my previous prognostications on the fiscal curb see:
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/89-8-fiscal-curb-deal-sales-through.html
“Look, there are a lot of conservatives in the Republican caucus in the House who hate the bill for good reason. This is a complete surrender on everything,” he said about the ratio of tax hike to spending cuts."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/krauthammer-cliff-deal-surrender-85656.html#ixzz2GnWkvFwE
Krauthammer had said this after the Senate vote but prior to the House. The only thing he got wrong was that the GOP House did not try to first send it back to the Senate with some amendments-what Boehner called "poison pills."
"The final vote was 257-167. The bill passed thanks to an overwhelming display of Democratic support — 172 Dems voted for the bill, while only 16 opposed. By contrast, only 85 Republicans voted in support of the bill, compared to the 151 — including House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) — who voted against."
"This was not an easily foretold outcome. Though the legislation was the product of White House negotiations with the Senate’s top Republican, and though it passed the upper chamber overwhelmingly in the wee hours of New Year’s Day, House Republicans nearly submarined the bill and sent the country down an uncertain road toward economic contraction"
"The cracks within the House GOP conference climbed all the way up to the top of the leadership team. Though Republican members were broadly resigned to losing the battle to keep tax rates at Bush-era levels, many could not stomach voting for the measure, even though the rates had already reverted to Clinton-era highs."
"They wanted cuts to federal spending. And, with a wink from Cantor, they were nearly prepared to sink the bill directly, or return it to the Senate amended and guarantee its demise."
"In the end, a self-preservation instinct took over. Leaders suffocated the rebellion, and decided to place the bill on the floor unchanged, at the risk of alienating the majority of rank-and-file Republicans."
"In the end well over half the conference voted against the bill — a rare violation of the so-called Hastert Rule, under which Republican leaders deny floor votes to legislation that lacks the support of a majority of party members."
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/congress-pulls-itself-back-from-over-fiscal-cliff.php?ref=fpa
What happened? My guess is that Boehner knew they had to pass it, that it was unthinkable to have the market open tomorrow with no deal and that he didn't want to be the man that all of America could point to as who singehandedly forced the country over the cliff. In the end, one of the most prominent Republicans of them all, Bill Kristol, got it right the Sunday after November 6 on Fox when he predicted that Republicans would have to cooperate with Obama much more than they might think as elections have consequences.
As for all the House Republicans who voted no, some of that was no doubt because they presumed the Zizekean Other would do the dirty work that they knew needed to be done but would rather not have to do it themselves with the spectre of a Tea Party primary coming in 2014. Maybe even Cantor who voted against was only doing so as he knew it could pass without his vote.
As to the Democrats I hope most realize we won this. Really. Listen, we had to compromise some. True the Dems have a mandate. That means the GOP has to do most of the compromising, but the Dems still have to do some.
For those who seem to be accusing Obama of breaking a campaign promise because he had called for a floor on higher tax rates of $250,000 and by now approving one of $450,000 this means he lied or has broken his promise, can they just get real?
This is what negotiations are. You start with one number your opponent comes up with a very different number that you find unthinkable but you finally compromise some and get a deal. Yes Obama had insisted for all of 2012 on $250,000 it's true. What had the GOP run on? On no tax increases, ever. period. Mitt Romney had claimed at a primary debate that he wouldn't take a deal that was 90% spending cuts and 10% new revenue.
After the election, Boehner said he agreed we need new revenue but that this can only come from closing deductions, no rise in tax rates. Then the president moved up to $400,000 and Boehner said $1 million as the floor on the Clinton era tax rates for the rich. Then last Friday McConnell had called for $750,000 and the final deal has $450,000. While both sides compromised, it's very clear the GOP compromised much more.
What is potentially a bigger worry is the GOP vow to use the debt ceiling for leverage in the future.
"But Republicans are vowing to channel their anger and disappointment into a new round of brinksmanship near the edge of a new cliff. The bill that passed the House Tuesday night pays down the sequester for only two months. By no coincidence, that’s right around the time when the country’s borrowing authority is expected to be exceeded and the debt ceiling will have to be lifted. A month later, funding for the federal government will also lapse."
"Republicans insist they’ll be better positioned to exploit that much steeper and more dangerous cliff to force the White House to swallow deep cuts to federal safety net programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security."
However, what the GOP is not factoring in their idea of using the debt ceiling continuously to force concessions to privatize Medicare and Social Security is that this idea of theirs is very unpopular with the American people. After they employed it in 2011 their party suffered a major hit to its brand that I will argue was really the start of the long road to their November 6 debacle.
If they truly plan to force default, people may conclude that the GOP can never be trusted to run anything again.
Maybe the GOP thinks they can win a stare down. However, if the debt ceiling is breached they will get all the blame. I suspect this will dawn on them before that moment.
Overall, it's a win folks. Don't act like a Republican who can never say yes. It wasn't a perfect deal but the Dems certainly compromised much less than the GOP-and that's all you can expect. Not everything but a lot of things, close to everything on the tax side anyway.
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