Reality of Debt Ceiling Chicken Finally Dawning on GOP

     There are signs that they're finally realizing that the debt ceiling is a dead loser for the GOP. Greg Sargent:

      "The obsession with the platinum coin has distracted media figures from what is a far more important story: The slow realization sinking in among Republicans and conservatives that they are losing the debt ceiling fight."

       http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/15/the-morning-plum-conservatives-surrendering-in-debt-ceiling-fight/

       Yeah, not to toot my own horn or anything but I think I was pretty early to the platinum coin is just a distraction party.

       http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-platinum-coin-and-idea-whose-time.html

       Krugman's discussion with the Obama Administration shows that my take on it was what they White House was thinking:

       "Meanwhile, I get calls. The White House insists that it is absolutely, positively not going to cave or indeed even negotiate over the debt ceiling — that it rejected the coin option as a gesture of strength, as a way to put the onus for avoiding default entirely on the GOP."

        http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/by-george/

        Scott Sumner is another who got the platinum coin early-that it wasn't needed and would even help the GOP. In truth it would have shown less strength than the posture Obama is taking: just raise the debt ceiling. That's the end of it. Full stop.

        My offer to you is this: nothing.

        http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/memes-of-the-moment-silly/

        There are plenty of tells that reality is finally dawning on the GOP. We've already had both the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Newt Gingrich-he should know about the futility of brinkmanship as he wrote the book with his ill-fated two shutdowns of the government back in 1995-warning them that this is a sure loser.

        Now we have the National Review warning them:

        "Today, in another step forward, the National Review calls on Republicans to take the threat of default off the table:

Republicans should recognize that the prospect of default is the Democrats’ chief weapon in their campaign of avoidance. That prospect is not a source of Republican leverage in the debt-ceiling fight; it is the primary source of the Democrats’ leverage. It is a way to distract the press and the public from the reality of our fiscal crisis.
The Democrats’ strategy offers Republicans an opportunity. Since the Democrats insist that the prospect of default is the reason they will not negotiate about spending restraint, Republicans should begin the debt-ceiling fight by permanently eliminating that prospect, turning the debt-ceiling debate into an argument about future spending rather than past borrowing.
The House should pass a bill to redefine the debt limit so that it constrains primary spending but not debt service. Under this reform, a Treasury that had hit the statutory borrowing limit could continue to borrow what it needed exclusively for paying interest on the national debt and to roll over existing debt obligations, but it could not borrow for any other government spending until the limit had been increased. This would take default entirely off the table.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/15/the-morning-plum-conservatives-surrendering-in-debt-ceiling-fight/

    As Sargent suggests, what NR is asking for is a little puzzling-they want to guarantee the wholeness of international creditors but not US Social Security beneficiaries?!-still it's a step forward into reality.

   Now we have-comparatively-moderate Republican senator Lisa Murkowski-Alaska-saying that the debt ceiling cannot be tied to spending cuts:

    "In an interview with the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner published Tuesday, Murkowski said, “If you incur an obligation, you have a responsibility to pay for that." According to the paper, " Murkowski said spending cuts are crucial but shouldn't be tied to the debt ceiling debate."
 
  "Murkowski, at a News-Miner editorial board meeting on Jan. 9, said she doesn’t think the debt limit should be used for political leverage," wrote reporter Jeff Richardson.

   "Murkowski said not all of her colleagues in the Senate will say it out loud, but she believes most agree that failing to raise the debt limit would harm perception of the country."

   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/lisa-murkowski-debt-ceiling_n_2478679.html

   If she's right about her GOP Senate colleagues it confirms what others have suggested: the Senate likely will pass a bill just as they did on the fiscal cliff that the House will ultimately allow to come to a vote which will pass with overwhelming Democratic support but enough GOP support to push it through. Greg Sargent suggested this very sequence of events yesterday.

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/14/dems-hold-a-trump-card-in-debt-limit-showdown/

   This is a very good bet as it's the blueprint that held both in the budget ceiling deal of  2011 and the fiscal cliff deal. I'd say the early lines should favor that outcome.