"Watching the president talk about the debt ceiling and his unwillingness to give up any ransom in exchange for it, I find it impossible not to confront the point that as of now nobody seems to believe him.
"And the reason isn't hard to identify: the fiscal cliff deal. Not because the fiscal cliff deal was a bad deal; I think it was a good deal. But whatever you think of the deal, it wasn't the deal that Obama said he would agree to. The administration put a lot of emphasis on the $250,000 cutoff point, and the administration also claimed for a while that they wouldn't agree to a deal that didn't address the debt ceiling. But when push came to shove, they decided neither of those things were red lines, which is fine. Maybe those were dumb red lines. But they were the lines Obama drew. And then he backed down.
"So now there's a credibility problem.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/14/obama_s_debt_ceiling_credibility_problem.html
See, that's particularly bad reason to say he'll cave-that he caved on the fiscal cliff, because he actually didn't cave. Yes he moved from his $250,000 floor to $450,000 but meanwhile the GOP moved from claiming they would raise no one's taxes to $1 million dollars to $700,000 to $450,000. And Obama caved?!
Finally, after the President's strong speech yesterday-his last of his 2009-2102 term-some are beginning to stand up and take notice. It was a very strong speech that spelt out very clearly what the GOP threat really amounts to:
“If congressional Republicans refuse to pay America’s bills on time, Social Security checks, veterans benefits will be delayed,” he warned. “We might not be able to pay our troops or honor our contracts with small-business owners. Food inspectors, air-traffic controllers, specialists who track down loose nuclear materials would not get their paychecks. Investors around the world will ask if the United States of America is in fact a safe bet.”
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/gop-prioritization-scheme-exposes-scale-of-debt-limit-threat.php?ref=fpa
This puts real pressure on GOP obstructionists. Jonathan Chait is finally impressed:
"This weekend, administration officials told Paul Krugman what they have told many of us, and what Obama said at his press conference just now: He simply will not let Republicans turn the debt ceiling into a chance to extract policy concessions. It never happened before Obama allowed it in 2011, and were it to become enshrined, it will be not only a permanent ratchet toward the Paul Ryan vision of government but an endless series of Russsian roulette games that will ultimately lead to the gun going off."
"Many of us have questioned whether Obama will actually follow through on his stated intention. In these games of chicken, he always seems ready to swerve at the last moment. What’s different here is that Obama seems so determined and explicit not to pay a ransom that he is leaving himself no room to backslide. If he pays the ransom, he’ll leave himself humiliated and exposed in a way he never has."
"So the two years Obama and Boehner have spent trying to deflect, delay, and placate the mania of the tea party seem to have finally come to an end point."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/14/the-tea-partys-last-stand/
Again, I don't see the President as caving in the fiscal cliff, and his negotiating performance from 2011 still remains underrated: why did the Dems have the leverage in the fiscal cliff? Much of it was set up by the debt ceiling fight of 2011. It didn't seem so at the time but Oama left in a much stronger position for future fights.
What's likely to happen is that Boehner will be forced to ultimately bring a clean debt ceiling bill to the floor-though he's vowed not to-that is passed with a Democratic majority and a smaller number of GOP votes-like the fiscal cliff deal. As Sargent says, Obama is acting like someone determined to break the tea party's power once and for all. I think he does just that.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/14/the-tea-partys-last-stand/
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/14/obama_s_debt_ceiling_credibility_problem.html
See, that's particularly bad reason to say he'll cave-that he caved on the fiscal cliff, because he actually didn't cave. Yes he moved from his $250,000 floor to $450,000 but meanwhile the GOP moved from claiming they would raise no one's taxes to $1 million dollars to $700,000 to $450,000. And Obama caved?!
Finally, after the President's strong speech yesterday-his last of his 2009-2102 term-some are beginning to stand up and take notice. It was a very strong speech that spelt out very clearly what the GOP threat really amounts to:
“If congressional Republicans refuse to pay America’s bills on time, Social Security checks, veterans benefits will be delayed,” he warned. “We might not be able to pay our troops or honor our contracts with small-business owners. Food inspectors, air-traffic controllers, specialists who track down loose nuclear materials would not get their paychecks. Investors around the world will ask if the United States of America is in fact a safe bet.”
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/gop-prioritization-scheme-exposes-scale-of-debt-limit-threat.php?ref=fpa
This puts real pressure on GOP obstructionists. Jonathan Chait is finally impressed:
"This weekend, administration officials told Paul Krugman what they have told many of us, and what Obama said at his press conference just now: He simply will not let Republicans turn the debt ceiling into a chance to extract policy concessions. It never happened before Obama allowed it in 2011, and were it to become enshrined, it will be not only a permanent ratchet toward the Paul Ryan vision of government but an endless series of Russsian roulette games that will ultimately lead to the gun going off."
"Many of us have questioned whether Obama will actually follow through on his stated intention. In these games of chicken, he always seems ready to swerve at the last moment. What’s different here is that Obama seems so determined and explicit not to pay a ransom that he is leaving himself no room to backslide. If he pays the ransom, he’ll leave himself humiliated and exposed in a way he never has."
"So the two years Obama and Boehner have spent trying to deflect, delay, and placate the mania of the tea party seem to have finally come to an end point."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/14/the-tea-partys-last-stand/
Again, I don't see the President as caving in the fiscal cliff, and his negotiating performance from 2011 still remains underrated: why did the Dems have the leverage in the fiscal cliff? Much of it was set up by the debt ceiling fight of 2011. It didn't seem so at the time but Oama left in a much stronger position for future fights.
What's likely to happen is that Boehner will be forced to ultimately bring a clean debt ceiling bill to the floor-though he's vowed not to-that is passed with a Democratic majority and a smaller number of GOP votes-like the fiscal cliff deal. As Sargent says, Obama is acting like someone determined to break the tea party's power once and for all. I think he does just that.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/14/the-tea-partys-last-stand/
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