RIP Debt Ceiling Chicken

     The GOP still can't quite bring itself to officially admit it's over. Still, this may have a lot more to do with letting down the Tea Party House gently than anything else. The writing is on the wall. With talk of abandoning the Hastert Rule what else is left? All that's left are the stages of grief.

     Yes, we still hear talk about a temporary raise, but even this is being proposed without any expectation that it will get them anything.

     "Influential conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer says Republicans should increase the debt limit in small increments, but without any real hope of using it to extract concessions."

      http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/01/gop-de-escalates-debt-limit-fight.php?ref=fpa

      It seems that the main agenda item of the GOP's 36 hour retreat is to gently wean Far Right members off of debt ceiling chicken:

      "The only thing left is for party leaders to talk a conservative rump of House Republicans through the stages of grief ahead of the deadline just over a month from now. That was ostensibly the purpose of the House Republican conference’s three-day retreat in Williamsburg, Va., which comes to an end this afternoon."

       "Over the past 36 hours, Republican House members have been provided a blunt assessment of the consequences of breaching the debt limit, and batted around a variety of options that run the gamut from the most extreme form of hostage taking to effective surrender. In Rep. Paul Ryan’s words, they’ve set expectations — presumably quite low. What they haven’t heard yet is an edict from the top that the party must abandon even the pretense of using the debt limit as a source of leverage — that the “Boehner rule,” which requires a dollar in spending cuts for every dollar increase in the debt limit, is really, truly dead. And so the threat continues, however diminished."

        Admitting the Hastert Rule is done though is major:

        "The biggest tell of the week didn’t come in an official statement from party leaders or a tightly choreographed press event, but in a couple of glancing thoughts from Rep. John Fleming (R-LA) who moseyed over from the main lodge at the Kingsmill resort to the club house — where organizers confined the press — to chat with reporters about the state of affairs as of Thursday afternoon.
Fleming started off by cautioning his audience of reporters that House Republicans would be hard-pressed to pass a clean debt limit bill, and so would try to coalesce around a bill that both increases borrowing authority and cuts spending."

       “I think the Republicans would have a real problem giving the president a clean debt ceiling, even … short term,” he said. “Maybe some would do it, but I think to get a majority of the majority vote, I think it’s impossible.”

      "Fleming was talking about the Hastert rule — the GOP’s principle that legislation shouldn’t come to the floor unless the majority of the conference supports it. But five minutes later Fleming gave up the ghost."

       “I think that the majority of the majority Hastert rule comes out of a time when we had a Republican president,” he acceded. “When you have a Democrat president that’s a very hard thing to achieve sometimes — and not necessarily important.”

        At this point all that's left is some cosmetic ways to not admit it's totally over. The monthly, short term raises is one way-that will likely go nowhere. As to the idea of passing a GOP debt ceiling hike along with spending cuts I really don't see that either.

        That would make them actually have to come out with the kinds of unpopular spending cuts that they want but are very unpopular. Until now, they've mostly tried to get Obama to be the one to name the cuts that they want. I'd be very surprised if they came out with a bill full of deep entitlement cuts-they sure didn't do that on the fiscal cliff.

         What will likely happen, then, is that the bill will start in the Senate-just as it did in 2011, and as did the fiscal cliff bill did-and then get enough Republican votes along with close to unanimous Democratic support.