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Saturday, January 12, 2013

Want a Sensible Centrist Party? See the Democrats

     It's been pointed out by Krugman, Greg Sargent, Jon Bernstein, and others that while you have the media's serious men like David Brooks, David Gregory, and Bob Woodward always asking why the two parties are both so polarizing and extreme, that this narrative is all wet.

    Only one party is getting more and more extreme. The Democrats have not moved further and further to the Left the way the GOP continually moves further to the Right. You can argue that the Democrats were further to the left 30 years ago.

    This is clear when comparing the parties on taxes. Which is the extremist position? That taxes can never go up on the rich or the Democrats who asked for a modest tax hike. If you look at things in the long view-rates were at 70% when Reagan came in, then at 39.6% 75% of the cuts for the top rate Reagan started in 1982 and ended in 1986-in this 5 year period the rate fell from 70% to 28% are still in place.

   Even for me personally I wouldn't call for top rates to go to at most 50%-and that probably only on a super rate of over $2 million or something. So the long term position on taxes seems to be kind of finding the center between the very high pre-Reagan rates but the super low rates they hit under Reagan and Bush W.

  Same on gun control. Despite the overheated rhetoric nobody is taking about doing away with guns, we are simply talking about sensible regulation. The GOP seems to be taking the NRA line that Frank Luntz knows is a big loser with the American people:

    "Beyond fiscal policy, Republicans need to revamp their messaging on other issues. For example, the tragic school shooting in Newtown, Conn., offered Republicans a chance to discuss public safety — a more personal issue than “crime” — on a human level. That hasn’t happened, but it still can. Most people agree that there is a middle ground between gun-control hard-liners, who see every crime as an excuse to enact new laws, and the National Rifle Association, which sees every crime as an excuse to sell more guns. The Second Amendment deserves defending, but do Republicans truly believe that anyone should be able to buy any gun, anywhere, at any time? If yes, they’re on the side of less than 10 percent of America. If not, they need to say so."

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-republicans-should-watch-their-language/2013/01/11/0f6f41fa-56ce-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_story_1.html

     Even here mind you, Luntz kind of hits at a straw man in saying that there are gun control "hard-liners" who see every crime as an excuse to enact new laws: who exactly does he have in mind doing that? Name me one person with any kind of a mainstream following who says we need to ban all guns in America? Mind you that's what they did do in Scotland after a mass shooting of young children in the 90s. There really isn't an extremist Democrat party and extremist Republican party but the media wise men are married to this script.

    More generally, I don't see the GOP as learning anything at that meeting Luntz says they will be having soon to figure out what went wrong in 2012. Everything they've done since November 6 suggests they still don't get it. Even Luntz sounds frustrated:

   "Now consider Obama’s strategy and approach. His pollsters do exactly what I do, figuring out which words resonate with voters — but they have a more willing, disciplined client. Nearly every White House speech during the fiscal cliff debate emphasized a “balanced, responsible approach” — sometimes more than once. Every time you hear phrases like that, know that a pollster crafted them because they resonate with Americans who are angry with the incessant bickering and partisan gridlock in Washington."   

    It looks to me that the GOP is hunkering down to be the minority party for a long time to come. I don't see them learning anything. In the 70s and 80s they were able to define the Democrats of being on the radical Left. However, many things have changed then both demographically and politically. The GOP seems to not realize this. If they think the same playbook that Reagan and Nixon used will work today, they're seriously on the wrong track.

  

   


  

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