How Obama's Gun Control Proposals Will Become a Law

     The President's proposals certainly pleased gun control advocates-and of course led more crazed GOP congressmen to throw around words like 'fascist" and "Saddam Huessein."

      The friends of the President like what they heard. The Brady Campaign to Stop Gun Violence liked what they heard:

     "The Brady Campaign stands with the President and Vice President in supporting these comprehensive policy recommendations to address gun violence. The White House has shown tremendous leadership in convening stakeholders and engaging the country in a conversation that the Brady Campaign and so many Americans have been calling for in the wake of Aurora, Newtown, and the 32 gun murders that happen every day in our country. We, at the Brady Campaign, are proud to have had the opportunity to share a comprehensive set of policy solutions with the White House Task Force and we are pleased to see our ideas reflected in the final recommendations. We will work with the Administration over the coming days to give voice to the American public who so strongly support common sense legislative policies that can immediately prevent gun violence, such as universal background checks. We also re-affirm the Brady Campaign's commitment to lead the way toward better public health and safety education programs regarding the almost 300 million guns already in the hands of mostly law-abiding citizens. I strong believe that now it’s up to us to make real change happen.”

      http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/brady-campaign-white-house-shown-tremendous-leadership-on

     The Coalition to Stop Gun Violence felt similarly:

      "In total, the proposal goes beyond what most gun control advocates were hoping for at the start of Biden's review process, during which he held 22 different meetings with 229 different organizations and 31 elected officials."

       "This is a monumental moment. It's a long time coming and we're thrilled the president's putting the full weight of his office behind this," said Josh Horowitz, executive director of the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. "We're ready to push this thing through."

       http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/16/obama-gun-control-proposals_n_2486919.html
     I like to hear that we're ready to push this thing through. However, just what will it really take to 'push it through?' Politico is predictably up with another piece about what an "uphill" climb gun control is, the NRA and the gun lobby are so strong.

     "Before President Barack Obama can even launch his campaign-style blitz for new gun control measures, there are strong indications that any comprehensive legislation restricting weapons and ammunition won’t even see a vote on the House floor."
  
      "Interviews with multiple House Republicans from the Midwest and Northeast reveal almost zero appetite to vote on any sort of sweeping gun bill. In the month after the school shooting in Newtown, Conn., none have brought up the issue with Speaker John Boehner. Without internal pressure from such center-right Republicans, and given his difficulties with restive conservatives in his conference, Boehner would seem to have little political incentive to move on guns."

       "And that may leave the president with few options besides focusing on background checks and what he can accomplish by executive action."

       "For all the coverage devoted to how much political capital Obama will spend on the hot-button issue and the details of what Vice President Joe Biden’s task force will come up with, the political realities of Congress have gotten short shrift. Leaders in both chambers have stalled on the issue, using the Biden commission as cover to not weigh in definitively. But even if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid were to attempt to muscle through a bill — no sure thing given his own ties to the National Rifle Association and the many red-state Senate Democrats up for reelection next year — there is only the most minimal support among rank-and-file House Republicans for gun control."

       Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/house-shows-little-appetite-for-gun-reform-86251.html#ixzz2IAI2bjLp

     Note the little flourish of how the political realities of Washington have gotten short thrift. This is a complaint. What we should be talking about is that it's going to be so very difficult-if not impossible-and maybe the President shouldn't 'waste too much of his limited capital here.'

     This is what they said in 2009 about healthcare as well. And these VSP pundits with all their deep insight into the political realities never really seem to consider how spotty their record really is. This is the same group that insisted that the President was in trouble in November and that it would either be an Obama squeaker or a Romney landslide-the economy was just too damning.

     Do their realities of Washington explain how the President just won the fiscal cliff fight and will win the debt ceiling fight while these same Very Serious People continue were telling us about all the leverage the GOP was supposed to have?

    The trajectory of successful gun control is very simple. It will follow the same trajectory that the fiscal cliff deal followed the debt ceiling deal will follow and indeed, the debt ceiling deal followed in 2011 too.

     For more please see

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/blueprint-for-debt-ceiling-deal-taking.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/dems-need-list-of-38-republicans-who.html

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/republican-strategy-going-forward.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29

     You have to start from the fact that the GOP has no leverage. The important leverage are the American people's support and that they have little of these days. What's more, the American people support a meaningful response after Sandy Hook. The idea that we do nothing, or just some meaningless cosmetic changes is not acceptable now.

     In the next two years all meaningful legislation will follow this path. It starts in the Senate in collaboration with the White House. Once the Senate has passed the bill, it goes to the House. where it gets rammed through with large Democratic support and just enough Republican support. See the Sandy relief bill passed yesterday with 32 Republicans and 187 Democrats or the fiscal cliff deal that got 85 Republicans with over twice as many Democrats supporting it.

     In the case of gun control, the issue is Harry Reid. Not only because he's strong gun rights supporter but he's also the Senate Majority Leader who decides what bills go up. He recently said something about there not being enough Republican support for an assault weapons ban. You have to ask whether it's that he doesn't think it can pass or doesn't want it to pass.

     So in this case he's a potential weak link. My expectation is that the White House will win him over. The absurd NRA ad that attacks the President's daughters and similar tactics may well help nudge Reid and other progun Democrats over to the right side.

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/16/the-nra-as-insurgent-outlier/

      I think you'll see a lot of this in the next two years. The Senate writes the bill in concert with the White House and then rams it through the House.