Krugman admitted that while he had been skeptical, the President and his team got the debt ceiling chicken game right. He called the GOP's bluff but dismissed the platinum coin or constitutional amendment:
"When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. I thought that by ruling out any way to bypass the debt limit, the White House was setting itself up, at least potentially, for an ignominious cave-in. But it appears that the strategy has worked, and it’s the Republicans giving up. I’m happy to concede that the president and team called this one right."
"And it’s a big deal. Yes, the GOP could come back on the debt ceiling, but that seems unlikely. It could try to make a big deal of the sequester, but that’s a lot more like the fiscal cliff than it is like the debt ceiling: not good, but not potentially catastrophic, and therefore poor terrain for the “we’re crazier than you are” strategy. And while Republicans could shut down the government, my guess is that Democrats would actually be gleeful at that prospect: the PR would be overwhelmingly favorable for Obama, and again, not much risk of blowing up the world."
"The key point to remember here is that Obama achieves his main goals simply by surviving. Above all, health reform gets implemented, and probably becomes irreversible."
"A good day for sanity, all around."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/18/not-with-a-bang-but-with-a-whimper/
This is big-it's not everyday that Krugman says he was wrong-he's kind of like the Fonz of economists. The White House had told him that their eschewing of the platinum coin was not of weakness but of strength. Not to toot my own horn-but after all, someones got to do it!-I had been making this point myself for a few weeks while most liberals were still consumed with platinum coin mania.
It was clear to me that far from the problem with the coin being that it was undignified, my take on it was that it gave the GOP and it's trifling, empty threats way too much unjustified dignity.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-platinum-coin-and-idea-whose-time.html
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/reality-of-debt-ceiling-chicken-finally.html
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/reality-of-debt-ceiling-chicken-finally.html
Krugman is right, this was a good day for sanity, and I think he has more than a little do with this himself-certainly he's been a welcome corrective during this tough time for the country and over the last 25 years overall in public life. Back in the Reagan-Bush years, he was a place of sanctuary for me and other liberals and has been ever since.
He also makes the key point that debt ceiling chicken was also a desperate attempt to refuse to fund ObamaCare. It will be implemented, and in future years, the GOP will be as unwilling to publicly admit to a desire to harm ObamaCare as they now are to harming Medicare and Social Security.
So yeah I'm tooting my own horn about getting the debt ceiling fight right. This is how I think it will finish up.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/blueprint-for-debt-ceiling-deal-taking.html
So let me point out my prediction for the next two years. As I say at the top, the future is going to be so bright, we'll have to wear shades. I think that the Kristol Premise is right-elections have consequences. Obama has won the first two fights-the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling chicken.
I think it will be more of the same. At some point the GOP discovers that the reason they can't figure out what their leverage is comes down to the fact that they don't have any.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/mandate-for-presidents-second-term.html
The President gets immigration reform-Rubio is already claiming to be on board and if you can believe it, Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly are backing him up-and he gets gun control reform. I wouldn't be shocked if there is even something for assault weapons. However, universal background checks are a no-brainer and supported by 90% majorities across the board-be it looking at Republicans or even NRA members.
As Krugman suggests, the sequester will be another cap gun and the budget won't be the big whoop the GOP wants to believe it will be. They know from Gingrich in 1995 how much shutting down the government will help them. They need it about as much as Boehner needs his speaker job in the House: according to him, he needs that job like a hole in the head.
This is going to be a good year, folks. I say this personally but also for the country. The future's so bright we're going to need shades. Luckily we'll be able to afford them.
I really think we should NOT ignore the POTC (Power of the coin!!)
ReplyDeleteLets not trivialize and laugh at that notion. Money is not what most people envision it as..... its much simpler and more powerful.
Banks are terrified of the coin......... which should tell you its a great thing for democracy.
One immediate potential positive from the coin is an abolition of the debt ceiling nonsense and adult conversations about what our govt does and does not pay for.
Intransigence on the debt ceiling leads to........................ THE COIN!!
Please note Greg that there are two separate issues. The politics of the coin and economics. I have no problem with the economics of the coin as I've written about elsewhere.
ReplyDeletehttp://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-platinum-coin-debates.html
However, politically the coin wasn't needed to get the GOP to back off of it's idle threats about the debt ceiling. I think the coin would have been conterproductive-giving the GOP an out.
I dont disagree Mike.
ReplyDeleteThe talk of the coin though had to come out when threats of GOP intransigence were at their peak. Its not even necessary for the president to bring it up. I think he handled it well but I think too many people think its just a silly stunt. If it were a silly stunt the banks wouldnt be terrified of it. They dont scare easy...... they own the place(so they think)
Yeah the economics are interesting.It seems that maybe the Central Bank in particular had reason to fear it-or so suggests Tim Duy
ReplyDeleteThe CB realizes this is govt self financing. The govt doesnt have to borrow from the fed/private sector. Which of course it doesnt have to, we just made the rules this way. But why is there a provision for treasury to be able to trump the fed so to speak? Were we insuring a legal escape clause in case banks actually took over the place and tried to BE the govt? I think so. I do think there are usually people in our govt who do believe in what amounts to our form of democracy, as imperfect as it is. There are a signifcant number of people in govt who dont believe the USA should be wholly privatized by banks. Less than 30 years ago but still a significant number
ReplyDeleteOnce thats out there the banks lose a lot of their power.
Just to touch on the political side again-I know you say you agree with me that the President did it right-Mike Konczal has a great piece where he argued that Obama had the superior game theory
ReplyDelete"–Debt Ceiling Game Theory: Mike Konczal examines the game theory behind the post-platinum coin debt ceiling issue. “The administration decided against negotiating with the GOP over potential terms for raising the debt ceiling, even though they could have tried for the Grand Bargain they’ve been trying to get for the past several years. They’ve asked for a clean increase of the debt limit instead, threatening default. They’ve also now decided to commit to not sidestepping around the debt ceiling using legal measures, either by minting the platinum coin or declaring the debt ceiling unconstitutional via the 14th amendment. The administration thinks that this move will strengthen their position. In general, having more choices makes you better off. But in strategic situations, removing some of your options can strengthen other options, by committing to following them through. Every game theory class has a reference to an army burning bridges and ships and otherwise removing their own escape routes, to tell their soldiers–and their opponents–that they’ll fight to the bitter end.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/01/14/secondary-sources-debt-ceiling-game-theory-china-and-inflation-2013-questions/
That's the key: the optimal stance was for Obama to eschew the coin or the 14th and lower his options-and at the same time his opponents. This is exactly what happened.