It's Official: President Sworn in For Second Term

     Take that Mitch McConnell! It was he who said the number one priority was to make Obama a one term President. As I say on the top front of my page, he is now a two term President and the future is so bright we're going to have to wear shades. I truly do believe that.

     What I've seen so far-both personally and for the country-only confirms this sense. In the most recent job numbers we've seen new unemployment claims drop to numbers not seen in 5 years. Honestly, as much as anything, I wanted Obama re-elected because I wouldn't have been able to stand Mitt Romney taking credit for developments that Obama helped achieve.

     On thing clear is that while the recovery may not have  as fast as anyone would want, at least it is a recovery unlike in Britain and Europe where they have had a double dip. Of course we're hearing all sorts of the usual silly media narratives about a "second term curse" and how his window of opportunity to exercise power is dwindling. Please.

    It's true that some recent President's have had rocky second terms. That hardly proves there's a "curse." Here is the type of cant you see in this media meme over at Politico:

    "Second terms — like second mortgages, second marriages and second trips to the salad bar — are seldom as gratifying as the first time around."

    "The conventional wisdom, derived from four decades of second terms that have ranged from moderately crummy (Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan) to catastrophic (Richard Nixon, George W. Bush), is that President Barack Obama can expect his power to ebb with each passing day until he finds himself like Bill Clinton, riding around the marble halls in the White House on a bicycle with a 60-plus percent approval rating."

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/4-pitfalls-president-obama-faces-86428.html#ixzz2IXVQDR2f
    
    Seldom as gratifying as the first?! Obama's first term was gratifying? In the first term the Republicans-much as they did to Clinton in his first term-sandbagged him, employing a strategy of relentless obstruction where they used the Hastert Rule to thwart the President at every turn.

    While he did ultimately get his stimulus, financial reform, and healthcare, these came at a bruising price and the GOP successfully demagouged ObamaCare during the 2010 midterm "shellacking."

     In 2011 he had to deal with an even more emboldened and obstructionist GOP that felt it had a mandate to make draconian spending cuts at a time when the President's popularity was at its lowest ebb. That was gratifying? Indeed. Clinton's first term closely followed the same trajectory in many ways with the GOP emboldened both times after big midterm gains and a job approval rating that did not rise above 50 till the election year.

    In many ways Clinton's second term was pretty good-huge bull market, biggest peacetime economic expansion, approval ratings above 60%. Yes there was the appalling carnival of the GOP's impeachment farce, but as Obama says about the debt ceiling-"that's on the GOP."

    Reagan's lustre certainly came off during the last few years-deservedly so after the revelations of Iran-Contra-he still kept an approval rating in the mid 50s and George Bush I was able to succeed him to the throne wearing his coattails.

    Nixon of course was different but he ran a very corrupt Administration-to understate things just a bit. W. Bush on the other hand was already flagging in popularity before the 2004 election. He did manage to hang one but clearly his best years were behind him-2002 when he had a 90% approval rating.

     Ultimately, don't believe the hype. The President is coming in far stronger than Bush in 2004 and has already won his first two battles decisively. There's no "curse" just a history book that shows that some Presidents have had poor second terms. Bush W and Nixon had catastrophic second terms because they were unusually corrupt.

    Clinton actually in many ways had a better second term than the first. His trouble was that his personal life made him very vulnerable to Republican witchunts. Despite all the intrigue Darrell Issa tries to build, the President's squeaky clean and won't get bogged down in something like LewinskyGate.
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     The media will try to flag certain tired narratives-the second term curse is one such narrative. However, the circumstances of other second term foibles centered around corruption. This is unlikely to be the President's problem, Issa not withstanding.