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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Does Boehner Have the Votes to Pass Plan B 2.0?

     That's what I like to call the latest GOP debt ceiling scheme. The idea here is that they won't "raise" it-as many House GOPers see that as a cave-what they'll do is "suspend it."

     As Ezra Klein points out, that actually sets a pretty good precedent. By suspending it, we're one step away from what we should do anyway: suspend it permanently. It's like a kid who says he'll ride without his training wheels for today, but tomorrow he wants them back on again.

     "House Republicans aren’t voting to lift the debt ceiling. They’re voting to suspend it for three months. It’s an entirely political, meaningless distinction, but it points the way towards an entirely sensible, overdue solution."

     "As Suzy Khimm reports, temporarily suspending the debt-ceiling raises some troubling technical questions. But it also sets a delightful precedent. Congress will have shown it can make the debt ceiling disappear. For three months, the debt ceiling simply won’t exist. And it won’t exist for exactly the right reasons."

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/01/22/suspending-the-debt-ceiling-is-a-great-idea-lets-do-it-forever/

      At best, it's always been a political football-the party out of power got to tsk-tsk while the party in power has to raise it. However, the GOP in 2011 was the first to use it as a hostage situation demanding the Ryan budget in exchange for raising it.

      "So the debt ceiling is a hard, unpleasant vote that needs to be taken in good times and bad. As such, it’s a hard, unpleasant vote that can go wrong at any time, simply because the politics of the vote are completely out of whack with the necessity of the vote. Republicans are admitting that when they choose to “suspend” the debt ceiling rather than raise it — this way, no one can accuse them of raising it, even though that’s exactly what they’ve done. The only problem with their plan is it doesn’t go far enough. We shouldn’t suspend the debt ceiling for three months. We should suspend it forever, completely eliminating the threat that this hard, unpleasant, confusing vote could go wrong and unleash economic havoc."

      Nevertheless, the Dems are rightly being noncommittal about the GOP proposal that will be voted on today. Obama said if he came to his desk he wouldn't veto it-note what he doesn't say, however: whether he supports it, or whether he'd prefer something better: that went beyond 4 months.
  
      The Dems are being coy as well. The House Dem leadership is urging members to vote no and force Boehner to pass it with 218 GOP votes.

     "Today the House GOP is set to vote on its novel scheme to suspend the debt limit, rather than raise it, until May 18th. House conservatives see this as surrender, since they are getting nothing in return for taking default off the table. House Dem aides tell me they are whipping Dems to vote No, putting more pressure on Boehner to come up with 218 votes himself. If Boehner can’t get this passed, we’re looking at another “Plan B” fiasco, and another blow to his leadership."

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/23/the-morning-plum-gops-magic-debt-ceiling-plan-wont-solve-the-problem/

     As Greg Sargent says, it makes sense to let Boehner twist in the wind. If it fails it may actually end up the Reid-McConnell show again and we may see a longer debt ceiling deal-maybe even McConnell's proposal-that he then filibustered-to effectively give the power of raising the debt ceiling to the President-which would de-politicize this once and for all.

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/22/keep-letting-boehner-twist-in-the-wind/

     So this is going in the right direction. It will be interesting to see if Boehner has the GOP votes today.


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