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Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Dems Need a List of the 38 Republicans Who Voted for Sandy Aid

      Yes, it's pathetic that only 38 did, however, it's also suggesting a pattern that I think will characterize this Congress. What you will see is the Tea Party crazies willing to blow up anything or scorn anyone-even Sandy Victims but there will usually be enough Republican votes to pick off to give the Dems important victories.

     I see it as quite plausible that they will have a similar dynamic on gun control, immigration, and other things the President and the Democrats need done later. I think that Boehner's claim-before the President even won on November 6-at even if Obama wins, the GOP opposition will be even more implacable and determined was more wishful thinking than anything.

     It's the Kristol Premise: elections have consequences. It's important to realize the big difference between the House today and back in 2011. In 2011, the GOP arguably had a good deal of political capital. While many liberals bitterly complained about Obama's capitulation in 2011, they ignored that politically speaking he at least had to seem to be open to GOP demands then, or willing to negotiate at least.

    However, he handled the debt ceiling fiasco effectively-contrary to what most believe even today-and the GOP overreached by a mile whatever capital they may have had. A similar phenomenon happened back in 1995 when they shut down the government.

    Again, in both years they had far more capital than today-they now have none. So they will have to ultimately go along with Obama on many things. Much more than they think-as Kristol suggested on Fox the Sunday after November 6.

   We should expect legislation to actually come from the Senate-often conferring with the White House. It will then be rammed through the House were a minority of Republicans will vote with Democrats to pass things that have to be passed. After Sandy Hook, it's unthinkable that no gun control measures will pass.

    Ditto with immigration, Indeed, this will even more likely get enough GOP votes as some of them know they have to improve relations with the Hispanic community.

    Yes I know the GOP still has a numerically significant House majority; however, it's a chimera much as the Democratic Congressional majority in the 80s with Reagan. Notice how Reagan almost always got what he wanted: this was because he had political capital, as Obama does now.

    On Sandy you had 38 GOPers who voted for it, on the fiscal cliff you had 85. Democrats need the lists and study those on them. It will give shape to things to come the next 4 years.

   

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