Blueprint for a Debt Ceiling Deal Taking Shape

     Just to show that great minds think alike, here's my prognostication for how the debt ceiling will be raised yesterday:

     "the Senate likely will pass a bill just as they did on the fiscal cliff that the House will ultimately allow to come to a vote which will pass with overwhelming Democratic support but enough GOP support to push it through. Greg Sargent suggested this very sequence of events yesterday.

       http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/14/dems-hold-a-trump-card-in-debt-limit-showdown/

      "This is a very good bet as it's the blueprint that held both in the budget ceiling deal of 2011 and the fiscal cliff deal. I'd say the early lines should favor that outcome."

      http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/reality-of-debt-ceiling-chicken-finally.html

     Here is Greg Sargent-later in the day...
     "This is a great catch by Jed Lewison. On MSNBC this morning, Rep. Greg Walden — a member of the House GOP leadership — would not directly answer when asked if the House would allow a vote on a debt ceiling hike without a majority of Republicans supporting it. If so, it could very well pass the House, mostly with Democratic support."

     "Little by little, you can see the outlines of a possible endgame coming into view. To be sure, things could still go very wrong for Dems, but there is a potential outcome favoring them that is looking more likely: Republicans quietly allow the debt ceiling to get detached from the other talks, while voting against raising it themselves."

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/15/debt-ceiling-endgame-comes-into-view/

     Sargent thinks it quite likely that we could see the McConnell Provision passed-he had rec commended it in 2011 but then backed off his own bill and had to filibuster after it was clear the Dems had the votes to pass it.

     "As you’ll recall, last year Mitch McConnell asked Harry Reid to hold a straight up or down vote on this provision, to bluff Dems, but was forced to filibuster his own proposal when it became clear that Dems had the unity to pass it. If Dems put this up for a vote again — and they should — virtually the whole strengthened Dem majority would likely support it. If McConnell filibusters again it’s possible Dems could get the 60 votes needed to overcome it."

     So yeah, not to toot my own horn, but it seems like I've been on the right track in my analysis throughout the debt ceiling debate. I had also early joined the school of thought that said that the platinum coin is not necessary. When Krugman spoke to the White House this weekend, they assured him that ruling out the platinum coin was done out of strength, not weakness.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/01/reality-of-debt-ceiling-chicken-finally.html

     What we are seeing is a very familiar pattern repeating itself. During the fiscal cliff debate many Republicans were able to accept reality and argue for accepting taxes for the rich going up by the hope that the debt ceiling will be their leverage.

      Now you have the voices of reason among Republicans urging them to hold their power until the sequester talks. The reality is that they have no leverage period. There won't be any in the near future. For now though, whatever gets them through the night: seriously, as this is what enables them to accept reality.

      In the long term the Kristol Premise will prove correct: that they will have to go along with Obama a lot more than they want to think because elections have consequences.

      As Sargent also says, while it's possible the GOP upon receiving the bill from the Senate could try to put on tough spending amendments, it's unlikely. After all, this would require them to actually ask publicly for deep spending cuts and they've never actually done that before.

     During the fiscal cliff, they kept trying to cajole the President into proposing cuts but they themselves wouldn't touch them.

      "Of course, there’s always the nightmare scenario for Dems: The House GOP does amend whatever the Senate sends over, attaches deep spending cuts, and tosses it back to the Senate with the clock ticking down. But the GOP has shown no appetite for proposing specific cuts of serious magnitude, and this threat turned out to be an empty one during the fiscal fight. The same could happen again. The most likely endgame right now looks to favor Dems."

      It would be way too much of a nightmare scenario for the GOP in finally owning deep cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security so you can bet they won't be doing this.

      If anyone thinks the GOP is in any position to effectively thwart Obama on anything they will reconsider after reading this Politico piece that shows they really are just like chickens with their heads cut off right now: I mean that in the metaphorical sense as well, in that there is no leadership in the GOP anymore, just different factions all groping around.

      http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/house-gop-heads-to-retreat-seeking-elusive-agenda-86255.html?hp=r1

       Even the passage of Sandy Aid yesterday underscores their weakness as it passed with a snail minority of GOP votes. This seems to be what we'll be seeing a lot of: the Senate will pass the bills after working with the White House and then ramming it through the House with a minority of GOP votes.

       http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/house-gop-heads-to-retreat-seeking-elusive-agenda-86255.html?hp=r1

       Yesterday only 38 Republicans joined 192 Democrats to get Sandy Aid passed. The Democrats ought to get a list of who those 38 are: many of these names may show up again and again to give them their House majority.