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Saturday, September 8, 2012

The Obama Bounce 'is actually happening'

    There's no way to deny it now. As we've noted, Ezra Klein admitted that the media feels like being objective and fair means they should criticize and praise the Democrats and Republicans in roughly equal amounts.

    They never wonder if maybe both sides are not equally honest. If not then they actually favor the Republicans which is of course what they in fact do.

     As Romney's convention was a dud, they've all tried to claim that Obama won't get much bounce either. However, it is acknowledged by some-including the Republican Joe Scarborough-that the Dems definitely had a better convention-how canyou not admit this?

    The most memorable part for Romney was Clint Eastwood's debate with his chair.

     However, then the media switched the narrative to even if the DNC was good, it wasn't going to matter as yesterday's job numbers would erase any bounce.

     Yet we saw Gallup show an immediate bounce for Obama which is very notable as Gallup had shown a race more or less tied for months. At this point Gallup shows Obama with a 5 point gain from the convention already-Romney had actually lost a point after his, the same amount Kerry lost back in 2004.

       And Obama's Gallup approval went up to 52% approve, 42% disapprove. That's particularly impressive as Obama has been flat all year on Gallup approval-if anything it's usually been upside down by a point or 2. No doubt the media wanted to be able to claim that this was just noise. However, now Reuters/Ipsos is out with their own polls showing similar movement.

       While Gallup shows Obama now leading 49-45, Reuters has Obama up by the same 4 point margin, 47-43:

      "President Barack Obama, picking up support following the Democratic National Convention, widened his narrow lead over Republican U.S. presidential challenger Mitt Romney in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Saturday."
       "The latest daily tracking poll showed Obama, a Democrat, with a lead of 4 percentage points over Romney. Forty-seven percent of 1,457 likely voters surveyed online over the previous four days said they would vote for Obama if the November 6 elections were held today, compared with 43 percent for Romney."
      "The bump is actually happening. I know there was some debate whether it would happen... but it's here," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark, referring to the "bounce" in support that many presidential candidates enjoy after nominating conventions.
      "Obama had leapfrogged Romney in the daily tracking poll on Friday with a lead of 46 percent to 44 percent.
     "The president's lead comes despite a mixed reaction to his convention speech on Thursday night in Charlotte, North Carolina, and Friday's government data showing that jobs growth slowed sharply last month.
     I love that saw about "despite mix reaction" to his speech. The media wanted to convince themselves that there was "mixed reaction" but in reality the President was brilliant. Yes, he was scaled back-this was by design, though. He let the rest of the DNC speakers do the heavy lifting. That was a very effective speech. He said what he needed to.
     For instance, we heard a lot of consternation that he hadn't mentioned ObamaCare-does this mean that he's afraid to mention it? No. If that were true, why did every other speaker mention it?
     The other "despite" was despite the media believing that the BLS report on Friday would dissipate his bounce. Turns out the obsessions of David Brooks' media aren't shared by the American people.

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