Is There a Rising Democratic Wave?

     A number of polls seem to say yes. There are some crosscurrents to be sure. Gallup seems to show that the President's convention bounce has faded reverting to his preconvention lead of 47-46%. However, many other national polls suggest otherwise. And then there are the state polls.

    Yesterday was a big day for released polls. Nate Silver could scarcely believe it, but he did admit that most of the numbers seem to harbinger very well for both the President and the Democrats in the Senate.

    "At about 1:30 on Wednesday afternoon, I tweeted in exasperation: “The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense.”

    "I’d just seen a Marquette University poll of Wisconsin, which put President Obama 14 points ahead of Mitt Romney there. This came after a Rasmussen Reports poll of New Hampshire, published earlier that day, which had given Mitt Romney a three-point lead in the Granite State."

    "There is no plausible universe in which Mr. Obama wins Wisconsin by 14 points but loses New Hampshire by three. It’s not even obvious which of the states is more favorable for him. Earlier this week, for instance, we’d seen a Wisconsin poll putting Mr. Obama up just one point there, while a different survey of New Hampshire gave him a five-point lead."

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/sept-19-a-wild-day-in-the-polls-but-obama-ends-up-ahead/#more-34780

    Still he does say:

   "By the end of Wednesday, however, it was clear that the preponderance of the evidence favored Mr. Obama. He got strong polls in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia, all from credible pollsters. Mr. Obama, who had been slipping in our forecast recently, rebounded to a 75.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 72.9 percent on Tuesday."

   However, there's reason to think this is becoming an Obama leading Democrat wave. Many Senate races are turning Dem recently.

   "The trend in the presidential race has been difficult to discern lately. President Obama has very probably gained ground since the conventions, but it’s hard to say exactly how much, and how quickly his bounce is eroding."

   "There are no such ambiguities in the race for control of the Senate, however. Polls show key races shifting decisively toward the Democrats, with the Republican position deteriorating almost by the day."

    "The Democrats’ chances of controlling the Senate have increased to 79 percent in the forecast, up from 70 percent on Tuesday."

     Indeed, it's getting so bad that:

     "But if the trend continues, the question may no longer be whether Republicans can win the Senate — but how vulnerable they are to losing the House."

     Some of these races are truly surprising like Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin suddenly pulling ahead of Tommy Thompson-some show her tied. Then there's Scott Brown.

    There was one poll yesterday that showed him leading-though it was by Howie Carr's Boston Herald. However, 4 different polls show Warren winning. This is almost entirely attributable to a Democrat wave that I think developed with the DNC convention. Silver points out that the Dems' chances were already improving before this.

    So what the Democratic wave may well be is a Romney wave.    

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/senate-forecast-what-has-gone-wrong-for-g-o-p-candidates/

    Talking Points Memo also suggests it's the national race that might be changing the state races.

   http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/is_romney_tanking_the_gop_senate.php?ref=fpblg

    Finally, that leaves the House. Can the Democrats pick that up? That's been seen as a long shot but as we saw above, Nate Silver says that they could be the next to go. If the Romney Wave continues to spread. For more on the Dems chances and the House see this piece at TPM.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/is_it_all_about_the_house.php?ref=fpblg