Dems Have Nothing to Fear But Complacency

     I just don't see how you can get away from it anymore: the Dems are in good shape heading into the home stretch. The President is near to an 80% lock to be re-elected according to Nate Silver, and the Senate Dems are just as strong to hold the forte.

     This is due to Obama's coattails. Since the DNC convention you've seen not just his numbers soar,, but the Dems down the ticket.

     Indeed, according to at least some serious poll analysts, the Dems are now looking strong to take back the House-yes that would mean picking up 25 seats.

     http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/21/monkeying-around-with-fundamentals-based-models/

     While many in the MSM want to hold onto the 'It's anybody's game" narrative, this is becoming much less plausible:

     "It’s hard to contest the view that Mitt Romney is losing. He’s trailing in all national polls, including ones friendly to Republicans, like Rasmussen. He’s trailing in all swing state polls, and the latest Post polls show him on the verge of losing in critical states like Ohio and perhaps even Florida. He’s at a cash disadvantage against President Obama, and conservative Super PACs lack the focus and direction necessary to make a real impact. And of course, Obama maintains an on-the-ground advantage. In the ten states most likely to determine the election, Obama has a 2-to–1 lead in field offices."

     "I don’t want to overstate the extent to which we can predict the final outcome of this election. Anything can happen. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien note that the final week can see a significant amount of change. Still, there’s no escaping the fact that Romney faces long odds. He doesn’t hold a lead in any of the states he needs to win, and he’s lost his advantage on the economy. Yes, the debates remain, but what we know says that they will have a marginal effect on the outcome. And with few exceptions, the leader in late September has always gone on to win in November."

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/mitt-romney-is-now-a-long-shot/2012/09/25/54a48d04-0726-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_blog.html

     There's no way to spin this: the Dems are in good shape. Still, the one danger that's left could be complacency. I don't think that will be a problem but if anything conceivably could beat us now, that would be it.

     Other than that I see little to worry about. The debates are little more than an urban legend. As the quote from Jamelle Bouie says, debates seldom make that much of a difference. There's no reason to think that Romney is going to beat the President badly which seems to be what the Romney team is now hanging their hat on.

     There's no way Romney could wallop the President the way Kerry did to George W. Bush in 2004. And in the end that debate performance wasn't enough to quell the momentum Bush built up after his convention. Very much like this year, Kerry actually lost a point from his convention-as Romney did-then Bush gained in his as Obama did.

     So two things:

     A). We're going to win

     B) But don't get complacent about it.