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Sunday, September 23, 2012

Just How Unpopular is Mitt Romney?

     Mitt Romney is the least popular Presidential candidate in history.   

     Strong words but also true. Who said them is even worse for the Romney campaign: David Brooks of all people.

     "After a rocky week that saw plenty of conservatives break away from Mitt Romney, New York Times columnist David Brooks summed up the state of affairs on Sunday."

      "As NBC's "Meet The Press" roundtable dove into some data surrounding Romney's popularity, Brooks did not mince words, calling him "the least popular candidate in history."

      "Mitt Romney does not have the passion for the stuff he’s talking about," Brooks said. "He’s a problem solver. I think he’s a non-ideological person running in an extremely ideological age, and he’s faking it."

      "Polls have brought grim results surrounding Romney's favorability, with a late August ABC News/Washington Post survey drawing a 35 percent likability rating."

     http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/23/david-brooks-mitt-romney_n_1907400.html

     When you lose such a "sensible centrist" as Brooks, is that not a sign something is really awry? Just as foreboding is a recent post by Sumner.

      "Last year I argued that the GOP was making a big mistake by not showing a willingness to negotiate with Obama on the budget.  Let’s review the facts:

1.  Obama was very anxious to negotiate, as he wanted to run for re-election on the claim that he’d been able to get beyond the old partisan divides in Washington.  After all, he’d promised to do so back in 2008.  He knew that a grand agreement would undercut the GOP argument on the economy.  And he has the foreign policy issue wrapped up.

2.  If the GOP had gone all in for Simpson-Bowles, they would have had to give a little ground on tax increases, but they would have gotten major tax reform.  Lower rates on income taxes in exchange for far fewer loopholes.  Isn’t that what Romney claims to want?   (Except the tax revenue increase, which he only wants secretly.)  And also spending cuts.

3.  By going all in for Simpson-Bowles, the GOP would have been seen as “bi-partisan” and all those centrist DC reporters that Krugman hates would have swooned over the party.  Especially if Obama held out and refused to negotiate.  Ryan would be seen as a hero.  Instead centrist reporters now (correctly) see the GOP as a rigid ideological party in hock to the Tea Party.  And that image will cause them to lose the independents, and lose the November election.

    "Compromise was the right thing to do.  Instead the GOP tried to destroy Obama, regardless of how badly it hurt the country.  Now they are about to lose everything.  And they’ll end up with a far inferior policy mix to what they could have negotiated in 2011."

    "What a stupid party."

     http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=16394

     In the comments section some GOP commentators tried to claim the the President is the one who killed the Grand Bargain. Sumner was having none of it:

      " I strongly disagree. Here’s what really happened. Boehner was initially inclined to compromise on taxes, but found that his party would not support him. He worked a compromise with Reid that did not involve any tax increase, but did involve revisiting the debt ceiling before the election. Obama was outraged, and rightly so. He stood up to the GOP and demanded that the debt ceiling be extended for a longer period of time (obviously the debt ceiling is absurd, and should not exist.) The GOP backed down and Obama won on the debt ceiling. The GOP won on the tax cuts, all of which were extended. But it was a Pyrrhic victory."

      When the David Brookses and the Scott Sumners of the world are lost, you know Romney's in trouble.

      Not that I don't hold Sumner on a considerably higher level of respect than Brooks. But among mainstream marcro guys, Scott is something of a "swing voter" who is often sympathetic to the GOP's economic message. Of course there's no doubt that the GOP put destroying Obama above the country, but that Scott can see this, shows that cow had long left the barn for the GOP.

      Just in case, Romney doesn't have enough bad news, the new Gallup numbers just came out. Wow. In one day the President went from an approval-disapproval mark of 48-46 to 51-43. He went from a 47-47 tie with Romney to a 48-46 lead.

      http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

      As the approval  rating is only a three day rolling average compared with the head to head poll that is a rolling average of seven days, this may be an indicator to where the Gallup poll might be in the next 4 days or so.

     The Gallup poll-and Rasmussen poll, of course-had been the only green shoot left for Romney with most other national polls showing the President with a solid lead and the state polls all going in that direction. Now the last green shoot seems to be turning brown.  

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