Romney's Attack of 1000 Pollsters

     The bad news from the pollsters keeps piling up. The Romney team has tried to say we should pay no attention to any of the polls-except Gallup and Rasmussen.

     On the one hand there may be a problem with that as both polls have been accused of under counting minorities. In any case, even those two polls are starting to show Obama pulling away. Gallup now puts the President's approval rating at 50% with 43% disapproving.

     As of yesterday it showed Obama now leading by 3 at 48-45. While that still is an outlier-most national polls show the President leading by more like 5 which is what Nate Silver thinks his lead is-its going in the wrong direction for Romney. The approval polls are done on a 3 day rolling average while the head to head match up is done over 7 days, so the 50-43 margin could be more indicative of where Gallup is going.

     Now we have-what else?-some more polls that look bad for Romney. Don't worry about it Governor! Just listen to Rush, He knows you're going to win. Ignore these zombie pollsters who eat conservative brains.

      "President Barack Obama now claims leads in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania that suggest the three states are no longer battlegrounds, according to a slate of new polls out Wednesday."
      "The latest swing state polls from Quinnipiac University, CBS News and the New York Times show Obama holding leads of 10 points in Ohio, 9 points in Florida and 12 points in Pennsylvania. Fifty-percent of likely voters in Ohio and Florida approve of the job Obama is doing as president, compared with 47 percent who disapprove in each. The president’s approval rating is at 51 percent in Pennsylvania, while 45 percent disapprove of his job performance."

       "In all three states, 51 percent of voters prefer Obama over Romney to preside over the national economy — a policy area over which the president has seized the upper-hand in the last month. About 60 percent of voters in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania say Obama understands and cares about their problems, while similarly large majorities say Romney does not."

     http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/polls-obama-leads-big-pennsylvania-ohio-florida.php?ref=fpb

     Romney's gender gap is now truly a yawning chasm:

     "Obama’s consistent advantage among women voters has spanned virtually the entire campaign, but the gender gap has swollen considerably in the three states. The president holds commanding leads among women voters in Ohio (25 points), Florida (19 points) and Pennsylvania (21 points). Romney holds single-digit leads among men in all three states.
The PollTracker Average currently shows Obama leading in Ohio (6 points), Florida (4.4 points) and Pennsylvania (7.8 points).

     The PollTracker Average for the national race now shows the President leading by almost 5 points: 49.1 to 44.2.

     There's also a new Bloomberg national poll out that shows-you guessed it-Romney falling more and more behind. The President now leads 49-43.

     "President Obama's national lead has grown to six points, according to a Bloomberg poll released Wednesday. Surveying 789 likely voters, 49 percent said they would vote for President Obama, while 43 percent said they would vote for Gov. Romney."

     "The poll is also more evidence voters have continued to sour on Romney. While his favorability rating in the Bloomberg survey is 43 percent, Romney's unfavorability rating swelled to 50 percent. Obama, meanwhile, registered a 52 percent favorability rating and only a 44 percent unfavorability rating."

     http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-jumps-to-six-point-lead

     Nate Silver now puts the President's chances at almost 80%, though he is still trying to be conservative. He said something in a TPM interview about Romney having one more week to show that the President's move is just a short term bump on the polls.

    I thought he said the same thing last week. It seems to me that if we don't see this by Friday we can be skeptical about any mere "bump." For now Nate is content to say Obama is the clear favorite but "we could be surprised."

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/nate-silver-election-interview.php?ref=fpb

    Regarding Obama's "bounce" Josh Marshall says:

    "Rather than subsiding, Obama’s post-convention “bounce” seems to be solidifying and growing."

    "Meanwhile Obama’s seems to be seeping down into the individual state races, especially critical states like Ohio and Florida. The TPM Electoral Scoreboard has Obama near his high water mark at 328 electoral votes to 191 for Mitt Romney."

     http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/obamas_bounce_grows.php?ref=fpblg

      Throughout most of the campaign Romney has tried to invoke Reagan-he'd come back at the end. However, this race is nothing like Reagan-Carter. Reagan actually had a 30 point lead after the convention and led through much of the race.

       In 1992 Bush tried to invoke Harry Truman in 1948. Maybe that would be the better race for Romney to hang his hat on at this point.

       Overall, history offers little reassurances to Romney. Incumbent Presidents don't lose provided they aren't primaried by their party.  Only Hoover lost since 1900 without being primaried.

       In election years that the market rises, the incumbent wins. The candidate who leads postcovention usually wins. I'm not aware of a race where a candidate trails wire to wire and then wins the election.

       It's clear why the pollsters have replaced the fact checkers of GOP public enemy number 1.