I got to say that one thing that has been a very pleasant surprise in this election has been the intelligence shown by Americans. That haven't fallen for the kinds of Republican tricks that worked in the past.
Indeed, Greg Sargent has written extensively of the fact that the GOP theory of this election has turned out to be a flop. Most Americans don't blame the President solely for the slow recovery as the Romney team had assumed.
They had thought it was enough to say You know the economy sucks and it's all Obama's fault. The RNC convention was all about the idea that You tried. We know you like Obama. But he's failed on the economy and it's ok to vote him out.
This approach was crystallized in a Romney commercial that had an attractive woman tell Obama that it's not me it's you. I'd rather we just be friends.
It presumed that the President had failed on the economy and it was obvious to most he had failed. The main thing holding the swing voters from turning on him they thought they hated to admit they were wrong about him.
As Sargent has argued, most Americans took a much more nuanced view. Yes the economy is not where we'd like it to be, but it's improved a lot and it's not clear that it's the President's sole fault that it's not improving faster than it is-what about Paul Ryan's House that refused to even look at his Jobs Bill?
In the end Americans haven't fallen for the Romney team's overly simplistic argument. Americans are not as dumb as many thought they were-particularly the Romney team.
Now some new poll numbers out of Gallup seem to be showing that Americans aren't seduced by the false promise of "divided government."
In the past the media talking heads talked a lot about some alleged preference of Americans for divided government. We heard this a lot in the 90s-for the simple reason that then we had divided government-a GOP Congress and Democratic President.
However, Gallup now shows more Americans want a Congress that is the same party as the President, indeed, in unprecedented numbers: 38% now want one party rule and only 23% want divided government:
"A record-high 38% of Americans prefer that the same party control the presidency and Congress, while a record-low 23% say it would be better if the president and Congress were from different parties and 33% say it doesn't make any difference. While Americans tend to lean toward one-party government over divided government in presidential election years, this year finds the biggest gap in preferences for the former over the latter and is a major shift in views from one year ago."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157739/americans-preference-shifts-toward-one-party-government.aspx
The fact of that matter is that since FDR at least, the big accomplishments have come with a Dem President with his Dem Congress. Social Security was passed because there weren't enough GOPers in Congress to stop it. The same with Medicare in the 60s.
Indeed, there are some cases perhaps of the parties working together like Tip O'Neil and Reagan in the 80s, or Clinton and the GOP with welfare reform in the 90s. However, notice that in these cases the Democrats basically went along with Republican priorities.
I love me some Bill Clinton, but honestly welfare reform was my least favorite thing he did. Just between you and me, during the political season it's necessary for the President to insist that he hasn't gutted the work requirement in welfare. However, I'd have been fine with it if he did.
When has the GOP worked with the Dems to on liberal priorities? I don't see many examples. The closest might be Ike and the Democratic Congress in the 50s. Perhaps Nixon in the early 70s as well.
But what this makes clear is that elections have consequences as it's said. Clinton had to mostly triangulate on a conservative agenda in the 90s, as politically the GOP had a mandate.
However, if Obama wins and the Democrats hold onto the Senate-both distinct possibilities right now; some also say the House is not out of reach and that it's even likely they'll take it back-it may be that Obama will turn out to be the transformational President the GOP has reviled him for being and Andrew Sullivan argues he will be in his second term.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/09/andrew-sullivan-is-obama-our-reagan.html
For the analysis that says the Dems can win back the House-he actually gives them a 75% likelihood!-see
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/21/monkeying-around-with-fundamentals-based-models/
As elections have consequences Democratic success this election will put the GOP in a tough spot.. Are they all willing to lose their jobs for ideological purity?
For 30 years they've practiced scorched earth opposition to everything the Dems have tried to do, however, might it at some point occur to them that this strategy that did them well is starting to suffer from a declining rate of returns?
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