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Saturday, September 8, 2012

Obama's Post Convention Bounce Growing

     You get the media trying to take potshots wherever they can. How far this is was shown after Bill Clinton's masterful speech on Wednesday.

     David Brook's media was highly frustrated that there was so little in the speech to be "fact checked." This comes from what Krugman had warned us about at the start on Tuesday. The media feels that they must "balance" the blistering that Paul Ryan took at the RNC by drawing whatever false equivalence they can.

     However, there was nothing to call Clinton out on. His facts were simply dead on. So AP-of all people-took issue with his reference to Romney's pollster saying "we will not be dictated to by fact checkers" by saying that Clinton wasn't wholly accurate in saying this because "what about Monica Lewinsky?"

     Now what you are seeing is the media trying to take away from the DNC convention anyway they can. Everyone admits that the GOP gave a feeble effort in Tampa. The most memorable speech was the one Clint Eastwood gave to his chair and Romney actually lost a point in Gallup's poll.

    Again, though remember, the media thinks being fair means giving roughly the same praise and criticism to both sides-Ezra Klein conceded this recently. Of course if the sides are not roughly equally accurate then awarding them they same amount of criticism and praise is actually deeply unfair.

    So one narrative is that the President didn't do enough in his speech. Another is to say that Friday's disappointing numbers are going to hurt the President.

    Most do admit that they won't change the race but they will take away his post convention bounce.

    I doubt it. Most Americans saw a clear distinction between Tampa and Charlotte and it's already being reflected in the polls. What I find interesting is this. Romney had a 47-46 lead in Gallup before the convention. When the DNC started Obama had a 47-46 lead. Now the latest has Obama up 49-45.

   This would indicate a gain for Obama of 5 points since Tampa started. What's more, as Gallup gives us a 7 day rolling average, the current 49-45 number still goes back to just after the RNC concluded. Not only is the President gaining from Charlotte, he seems to have gained from Tampa as well.

   My guess is that we'll see the gap widen more over the next week-it won't be till Friday that we will roll out with yesterday immediately after Obama's speech-and the job numbers they are so eager to fixate one-and a full week after.

   What we see is that Obama's approval number is now up to 52-42 which he hasn't seen anything like all year. Indeed these are the best numbers since just after he killed Bin Laden.

   http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

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