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Thursday, September 6, 2012

Markets Explode on Economic News, Draghii's Bond Buying Program

     We know that there are a few unhappy men in America this morning. One is undoubtedly Mitch McConnell, whose number 1 priority is making Obama a one term President.

     Mitt Romney as well, is an unhappy man. Romney keeps invoking Reagan, He's going to have a landslide victory like Reagan back in 1980. Just you wait.

     The RNC convention was going to set up the Reagan Romp. Except it didn't. Instead, Romney joined the unenviable company of John Kerry and George McGovern as the only Presidential candidates since 1964 to have no convention bounce.

     Then came the DNC convention which did more on the first night than Romney did in three nights. So Romney had nothing left but to argue that, still, he just had to wait till Friday morning and gloat about bad economic news.

     What we saw today though was what he didn't want to see. Here's what Bill Clinton emphasized last night: Romney and McConnell in their single minded campaign to destroy our President have fallen into actively rooting against the United States and our economy.

      You know what Romney is thinking now: Damn! Maybe some bas stuff will still come on Friday morning. What he is not thinking no matter what he tries to tell us is that he ever rooted for this President to succeed. Of all the lies of Romney-Ryan in their Holy War against the Fact Checkers, this lie perhaps requires the most chutzpah.

       So today, some great news both in Europe and in the U.S. comes and Romney sits there with his campaign team and he's disappointed. For him bad news is bullish.

       The market guys seem to trust this rally more than past rallies we've seen:

        “There’s no ambiguity about the rally today—every economic data point we got was positive and the market liked Draghi’s comments,” said Brian Gendreau, market strategist at Cetera Financial Group. “We don’t know if this new program is going to succeed, but the ECB seems to be squarely in the camp of taking positive action.”

       "ECB President Mario Draghi said the new bond-buying program will be a "fully effective backstop," speaking at a press conference after the Council's monthly meeting in Frankfurt."

      "Seeking to back up his pledge to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, Draghi said the new bond-buying program, aimed at the secondary market, would "safeguard the monetary policy transmission in all countries in the euro zone area."


     "On the economic front, the pace of growth in the services sector rose to 53.7 in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing report. Economists had expected a reading of 52.5. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector."

    "Jobless claims declined 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 365,000, hitting its lowest level in a month, according to the Labor Department. Economists expected claims to fall to to 370,000, according to a Reuters poll. However, the four-week moving average for new claims, edged up to 371,250."

   "Private businesses added 201,000 jobs in August, according to a closely watched report from ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of 145,000 new jobs."

   "Meanwhile, employers announced 32,239 planned job cuts in August, down 12.5 percent from the previous month, to hit a 20-month low, according to a report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas."

   “These are good signs for tomorrow but do we really trade on fundamentals or on central banks?” said Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading. “There are too many factors going on that fundamentals are taking second place to money printing issues.”

    "The jobs data come ahead of Friday's widely-watched monthly government report for August, which is projected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by a modest 125,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 8.3 percent."

    "Other economic reports out on Thursday include the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index at 10 a.m., which tracks monthly changes in the service sector economy. Economists polled by Briefing.com predict the index fell in August to 52.4, down from 52.6 in July. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in the non-manufacturing sector."

     The S&P is now at it's best level since May of 2008. Yes, of course, Romney will still be hoping that tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls or the new unemployment rate are disappointing. At what point though does he begin to be too obvious in rooting against the economy?

    These numbers jibe right with what Bill Clinton said last night as well when he said that we may not be able to feel it yet, but we're getting there.

    Indeed, just the other day, Krugman said that we may be getting there now.


    Another good sign is a report that the housing industry lacks workers for their demand.

    

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