Bill Kills: 'The Moment That Re-elects Barrack Obama?'

      These words may well be true, however, what's most notable about them is who said them:

      "This convention is done. This will be the moment that probably re-elected Barack Obama.” — Top Republican strategist and CNN yacker Alex Castellanos just after Clinton’s speech.

       http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/out_of_the_park_1.php?ref=fpblg

       When your opponent says this you know you've done something right. There are a lot of signs that Romney is "done." A very good sign was actually his own convention last week.

        That convention was talked up by GOPers as where Romney needed to make his mark. Steve Smith predicted that Romney would get a big lead out of it, outside of the margin of error. Instead, Romney actually lost a point according to Gallup. In doing so, he is only the third Presidential candidate this has happened to since 1964.

        The other two: George McGovern and John Kerry, not exactly a Murderer's Row of Presidential candidates.

        The Romney campaign has been trying to invoke Reagan's come from behind landslide over Carter all Summer but it just doesn't fit. This election is nothing like 1980.

        http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/09/romneys-1980-dreaming.html

        What it most closely resembles is John Kerry in 2004 which is not what Romney wants to hear. There were so many differences in 1980-as the above link gets into in more detail. One was that all 50 states were up for grabs-this was prior to the blue-red state divide.

         To achieve a landslide requires the GOP to win a few states like New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, and California. Back then New Jersey was a Republican preserve. Both candidates campaigned in all 50 states.

         Another big clue is that Obama was not primaried-though this was the favorite topic over on Firedoglake all Summer in 2011. Believe it or not not since 1900 only one incumbent President lost who didn't face a primary challenger-Herbert Hoover of all people.

         As Nate Silver tells us, Romney's lack of a bounce was very much a sign of foreboding:

         "Being only tied in the polls immediately after his own convention is unambiguously a bearish sign for Mr. Romney — and probably the most tangible sign to date that Mr. Obama is the favorite."

         http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/

          While Romney joins Kerry for the worst post convention bounce, bare in mind that Clinton had a 16 point bounce after his convention in 1992 and he just gave the speech of his life tonight.

           In reality a much more modest bounce than that could really hurt Romney's standing:

           "But Mr. Obama seems to have more control of his own destiny right now. If he carries even a modest bounce out of Charlotte, he’ll remain in the front-runner’s position."

           "And if Mr. Obama gets a bounce that’s a bit better than modest — say, he leads in the national polls by in the neighborhood five or six points next week, as Mr. Bush did following his convention in 2004 — Mr. Romney’s position will start to look fairly grim."