Pages

Saturday, July 28, 2012

GOPers Put Their Money Where Their Mouth is On 'Treasury Bubble'

       I mean, you have to at least give them that. That's why when I hear yet another story of Republican Congressmen shorting Treasurys, you have to admit that maybe they're not hypocrites, maybe they really do believe it. Krugman observes:

      "And it’s not just cynical (though there’s plenty of cynicism); we keep hearing about Republican politicians who are shorting Treasuries. Here’s an earlier story involving Eric Cantor."

      http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/27/speaking-of-getting-everything-wrong/

       There are any number of deficit hawks and inflationistas who did put their money where their mouth is. Bond king, Bill Gross, Mr. Oil and China, Jim Rogers. And they lost their shirts. At least Gross later admitted he was wrong. Rogers still thinks it's coming.

       What do you do with someone who never learns? Like Keynes said-In the long run we are all dead. I had another very amusing conversation with Major Freedom over at Money Illusion-how could any conversation him not be amusing?

        I quite seriously believe he is a certified obsessive compulsive neurotic. He was quoting Hayek who says that when we make policy decisions we should consider the impacts they will have in 50 years! An Keynes said those who fret about the long run set themselves too useless a task?

        "The Republican nominee in Ohio’s Senate race stands to reap a significant financial windfall if the government defaults by not raising the debt ceiling, a move he opposed last year and has indicated he would vote against if elected to the Senate."


        "According to personal financial disclosure documents examined by ThinkProgress, Josh Mandel’s wife owns an undisclosed amount of ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury exchange-traded fund (ETF). This ETF aggressively “shorts” U.S. Treasury bills, meaning that it bets against U.S. debt and spikes when Treasury bill values drop. If a default were to occur, the desirability of Treasury bills would plummet and Mandel’s ETF would skyrocket in value."

       "That precise scenario could become more likely if Mandel wins his race against Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH). One of the top issues Mandel lists on his website is to “Stop increasing the debt ceiling.” Similarly, when Congress was embroiled in the debt ceiling fight last year, he stated that he “would have voted against the debt deal” that narrowly staved off a default."

        http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/07/27/590481/josh-mandel-shorting-treasury-bonds/

        On the one hand with have the naive belief that there is any approaching bursting of a "Treasury Bubble."

         However, there's also the idea that GOP Congressmen where actively shorting them while deliberately voting for default. Then we have GOP House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

         http://www.salon.com/2011/06/28/eric_cantor_conflict_of_interest/

         Interesting to reflect on the fact that Cantor was actually the one who killed the "Grand Bargain" deal last year. Boehner actually had come to an agreement with the President and then Cantor rallied House support against it.

3 comments:

  1. Shorting Treasuries (especially using a leveraged ETF, which is terrible even if correct) is likely a poor investment. That being said, should politicians be able to short Treasuries when they can vote to default? I doubt it ever comes to that, but it's a scary thought.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Woj! Yes it's certainly a poor investment. That's the main point-the inflationistas realy do believe their own rhetoric.

    It also does make you think that Cantor was short U.S. Treasurys while voting for default.

    Similarly, it's been suggested that Mitt Romney may show some exposure to shorting Treausrys in 2009

    ReplyDelete
  3. It's fantastic I had no idea about this until I read this blog article of yours over here. I also wanted to ask you something about this blog. Do you happen to know how to protect your entries from being stolen?

    ReplyDelete