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Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Obama Come's Out For Gay Marriage

     So he's evolved. There is some speculation that Obama was kind of pushed into this by Joe Biden's comments on Meet the Press last Sunday, yet I tend to agree with Laurence O'Donnell-not for the first time do I agree with O'Donnell.

    I was also with Laurence during the debt ceiling debacle last Summer. While everyone was so sure Obama was in bed with Pete Peterson and was determined to eliminate Medicare-more eager than Paul Ryan, definitely more eager than Mitch McConnell who they even thought didn't want any cuts-Laurence was the voice in the wilderness making the point that the President was doing what  they couldn't mock enough at Firedoglake-that is playing some pretty skillful eleven dimensional chess. David Corn in his recent book chronicled this.

     I suspect that Laurence is right that Biden didn't make a mistake on Sunday nor did he "go rouge." I thought the same thing at the time that it was very deliberate. Then when Arnie Duncan declared categorically that he believes gay marriage should be legal that they only reason that he never said this before is that he was never asked it was even clearer.

     Biden and then Duncan set the table for the President. Note that each statement-from Biden to Duncan to Obama-gets a little stronger. Biden simply said he's "very comfortable" with gay marriage, Duncan said that it should be legal, then the President declares he's for it.

     What are the political implications of this? I think mostly for the good. The country seems to be reaching the position that gay marriage is a legitimate civil right. We have all the states recently to make it legal. And the polls show 53% of Americans now supporting it.

      For the most part is someone is virulently anti gay they didn't support the President previously as well. It could be a wedge issue at the margins. The African-American community largely doesn't like the idea of gay marriage-if you read a blog like the Black Agenda Report during the time that gay marriage became legal in NY it was treated largely as something for rich white gay men. Certainly blacks won't vote for Romney but maybe some could sit home. I don't think it will be many though Rove did use the black anti gay pastor in 2004.

    It's possible that it might even change some people's mind in the community as Obama is held in regard.

    What I think it does for Obama most crucially is energize directly many in the gay community and perhaps many young people in general. While most gays would have voted for Obama anyway, this may well raise enthusiasm appreciably for some who were unhappy that he never explicitly said what he did today.

      As for Romney while some in the GOP think this will be an opportunity any opportunity it poses is double edged. For the bigots it wins over how many will be repulsed by the GOP's anti gay rhetoric. Romeny is on the record of not only opposing gay marriage but even civil unions, indeed he supports Doma.

     Of course we also have the edifying spectre of the way he left Richard Grenell hanging out to dry last week. On balance I think that attacking Obama on this will be a net negative for Romney and a net positive for the President.

     Best line of the day: Chris Matthews wonders why the Log Cabin Republicans even still exist at this point.

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