Can Democrats Win Back the House?

      I will admit even formulating the question is getting me all hot and bothered, yet I almost feel like it shouldn't be said out loud.

      Honestly this is a big part of my concern. I expect the President to win re-election my concern is that if the Dems make no inroads in the House and the GOP takes back the Senate-only takes 4 seats and there are 21 Democratic seats in play to only 10 for the GOP-then Obama is little better than a lame duck.

     Certainly the Clinton years shows that there's still life after losing Congress still Obama would seem to be very hamstrung if there is a Republican House and Senate. Recently however GOP Speaker Boehner made news by claiming on CNN that there is a 33% chance the Democrats take back the House.

     Is this true or is he trying to light a fire under the GOP Reps collective butts?

     Again, there is a lot of things to be concerned about for the Democrats this year. As we saw the numbers in the Senate gives the GOP much less defense to have to play than the Dems. Then again there are all the new GOP voter id laws that are of course meant to keep  Democrats from voting. There is also lots of redistricting of the kind that already has claimed Denis Kucinich's scalp and may take Charlie Rangel's next.

     What may help the Dems however is the yawning, gaping gender gap as well as the huge widening chasm with Hispanic voters. The GOP has done everything possible to chase away these two groups and this could turn many states. In Massachusetts the only reason Elizabeth Warren is tied with Scott Brown is the gender gap-men favor him 43-30 but he trails with women-43-33.

     I haven't listened to Howie Carr lately but I'm sure he's had a few show topics that ask whether or not giving women the vote was a mistake. Insulting them is the way to their hearts.

     The other thing that could help the Democrats is the coattails effect. How big will Obama's coattails be?  What are our chances of taking back the House? Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Ca) answers:

     "I think it’s very feasible. I rate our chances a bit better than Speaker Boehner, but it’s very unpredictable. It depends chiefly on how much Obama wins re-election by. Does he win by seven points the way he did last time, or does he win by .7 points, which at least gets him re-elected but doesn’t give us a majority?"

     "Democrats need to raise money and spend those resources on the close races, Democrats versus Republicans, not races like mine which are Democrat versus Democrat. Then we have to look at the things that will determine the national mood, and they are: Who does Mitt Romney choose as vice president? What’s the unemployment rate in the summer and fall? How well does Obama do in the debates? I think he’ll do very well."

    "It’s very hard to predict whether we’re going to take back the House."

     "Boehner needs to raise money. What he thinks our chances are and what he says he thinks our chances are, are two entirely different questions. The question is, why did he go public saying that we have a good shot? If he really thinks it’s a third, then maybe it’s a least 50 percent
Pelosi has been telling Democrats and Democratic donors that we have a good chance of winning, and Democratic donors have responded and have believed her."

       http://www.politico.com/arena/

       So according to Sherman a big part of the coattail effect is strength of victory. If this is true I like our chances.