Pages

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Could EU's Pain Be Our Gain?

     With all the debating about fiscal vs. monetary stimulus it's always possible we will get neither-very possible even. Right now the trouble in Europe is hurting us too-or at least the stock market which is again down double digits today.

    However, there could actually be a-major-silver lining to this-with investors leaving so many European banks US debt is looking even more attractive than it usually has been since 2008:
    
    "But, unlike normal times, it’s not because of actions taken by the Federal Reserve [cnbc explains] . This time, rates are dropping because of fears that Greece, which is still trying to form a government, will totally default on its loans."

    "So, as in the 2008 financial crisis, investors are looking for a safe haven in a storm. And, as in other times of trouble, they are moving into U.S. Treasury securities, driving interest rates [cnbc explains] lower and lower."

   "For the U.S., there are ramifications for this flight to safety — most of them positive. Mortgage rates are now hitting record lows. Automobile loan rates are falling as well. And the cost of borrowing money for the U.S. Treasury is also dropping, perhaps helping to lower the national debt. Whether the decline in interest rates might foreshadow something more sinister, such as a global economic slowdown, is still too early to know. "

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/47456361

     To be sure while low rates are a good thing they are also a sign of heightened risk aversion. Still assuming this "something more sinister" doesn't happen it's actually good timing:

    "The lower rates are also coming at an opportune moment. Spring data indicated that the U.S. economy had hit a soft spot. Employers slowed their hiring and business delayed some investments."

No comments:

Post a Comment