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Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Nice Try Germany But Blaming Markets Won't Work

     Watching Stephen Kampeter from the German finance ministry on CNBC  it made me think of my recent experience at this local  Chinese food restaurant I had been going to a lot lately. I always would get a half chicken dinner with fries. Usually I'd buy more fries after finishing-I'm a big eater.

     http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000061834#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDYyMzE5IiwiZW5jVmlkIjoiWUpyYzZBTDRPbmF2bDJuSDlpdTVKZz09IiwidlRhYiI6ImluZm8iLCJ2UGFnZSI6IiIsImdOYXYiOlsiXHUwMGEwTGF0ZXN0IFZpZGVvIl0sImdTZWN0IjoiQUxMIiwiZ1BhZ2UiOiIxIiwic3ltIjoiIiwic2VhcmNoIjoiIn0=

     The fries are big and crispy and the chicken is thick and crispy with lots of meat on the bone. Then recently I went to order my usual and the chicken was unusually meager and thin, the fries were much smaller and less crispy. I asked him if something went wrong this time. I came back with, "No, I agree." Perhaps hoping to mollify me by "agreeing" with me.

   He then goes in to a long story the punchline of which seems to be that his wholesalers send him what they will with the quality varying and he has no control over it. It varies but he assured me that it at any point will get better again. He did give me a second helping. But it was just as meager. Just wasn't satisfying. Worst of all he used an unfortunate phrase. Customers, he gave me to understand, "are spoiled." Yes we have to live in the real world sometimes the wholesalers don't send good pieces of chicken and quality fries.

    Still unfortunately the Chinese food owner doesn't live in the real world either: customers, spoiled or no, will leave if they don't like the food. Is that what spoiled means-wanting to pay for food you actually like? There's no obligation to eat his food at all which I stopped. I did try again a few weeks later and it was just as meager. I don't know what happened-either the wholesaler is trying to save money or he is and is blaming the wholesaler. If the wholesaler is giving him meager food he should get a new wholesaler, if it's more expensive so be it.

    And this was basically the feeble argument Kampeter was trying to market. The market is irrational not to like last week's agreement where Germany ruled out eurobonds and raising the bailout fund by any more than 100 billion euros. The market doesn't have to be right. In the end they are the customer that matters and they aren't impressed no matter how Kampeter's country tries to displace blame.

    More and more it's hard to see how this will end way but ugly. Hate to say it but maybe the market people investigating the default option are right. As bad as it would be-for Greece to return to the Drachma would be tremendously difficult as even most Greeks would prefer the Euro to the Drachma. Still staying in the EU means only lots of pain with no gain whatsoever.

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