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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Newt Overtakes Romney

     This was not supposed to happen-as far as the Republican party establishment is concerned. I guarantee they are dismayed about this though it's possible that Newt is more acceptable to them than were Perry and Cain the last two "Not Romney" candidates.

     Gingrich showed a sizable lead of 15% over Romney in yesterday's first Gallup poll in the Republican primary. He has a lead in Iowa of 14 and 15 points over both Romney and Paul in a recent Iowa poll. He places second in NH and has a huge margin in Florida and strong lead in South Carolina.

    His lead in Iowa is despite the fact that he has done little to build up a organization there as has been done traditionally there as Obama did in 2008, W did in 2000 and Bob Dole did in 1996. The numbers suggest it doesn't matter.

    His spokeswoman for his Iowa operation says, "We're doing things a little different."

    "Newt Gingrcih has built a history of faster, stronger, leaner, and smarter." Katie Koberg says, making a virtue of necessity. (Today's Wall Street Journal, pg. A6).

    The concern is that Gingrich without an effective organization may underperform his poll numbers. Yet he is sanguine about this spending more time in Ny hanging out with Trump.

    Romney's supporters on the other hand worry that he is not willing to go after Gingrich at all and draw clear distinctions. While Romney has been the presumptive nominee, he is now trailing Gingrich and it might seem that some sort of push is necessary. His strategy though while his campaign does say he will step it up on Newt a little is more to rest on his superior organization and funding and let Newt implode as he has a tendency to do.

   So both strategies have some risk-Newt eschewing organization, Romney resting on organization. One thing that is clear from Romney's own failed 2008 campaign as well as Gillian's is superior funding and organization are not enough.

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