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Wednesday, June 24, 2015

What Does the Data Say on Paying Ransoms to Terrorists?

       The President has made some signifcant changes on how families can negotiate with terrorists who kidnap their loved ones.

       "President Barack Obama is clearing the way for families of U.S. hostages to pay ransom to terror groups without fear of prosecution, as the White House seeks to address criticism from those whose loved ones have been killed in captivity."

      "The hostage policy review to be released Wednesday will also state that the U.S. government can help facilitate communications with terrorists on behalf of the families, according to U.S. officials. However, a prohibition on the U.S. government directly paying ransoms or making other concessions to terrorists will remain in place."

      http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/obama-hostage-families-can-negotiate-release-terrorists

     It's not so much a change as it is a kind of codification and affirmation of past practice. 

     "Two U.S. officials familiar with the review said there will be no formal change to the law that explicitly makes it a crime to provide money or other material support to terror organizations. However, the administration will make clear that the Justice Department has never prosecuted anyone for paying ransom and that that will continue to be the case."

     "While the government has long turned a blind eye to family contacts with terrorists, officials acknowledge that the unspoken policy has been applied unevenly. The inconsistencies have been magnified in recent months with the kidnappings and killings of Americans by terror groups."

     "Four Americans have been killed by the Islamic State since last summer: journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff and aid workers Peter Kassig and Kayla Mueller. After the release of gruesome videos showing the beheadings of some hostages, Obama approved an airstrike campaign against the Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria."

     "The families' anguish has been deepened by the fact that European governments routinely pay ransom for hostages and win their release. The U.S. says its prohibitions against the government and private individuals making any concessions to terrorist demands are aimed both at preventing more kidnappings and blocking more income for terror groups."

     "However, the Obama administration did negotiate with the Taliban last year to win the release of Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, who was captured after walking away from this post in Afghanistan. Five Guantanamo Bay detainees were exchanged as a condition of his release. White House officials say those negotiations were permissible because Obama sees a special responsibility to leave no American service member behind on the battlefield."

     Still the President will not take off the lid on the government itself paying ransoms. As for the premise that paying ransoms leads to more terrorist attacks that's a theory. In economics a theory is ideally tested in a natural experiment. So what does the comparison of France vs. America say in terms of hostage taking? To be sure it may be hard to make a real comparison. We really don't have so many kidnappings-they probably have more in Europe as they are closer to the terrorists there. 

    While 4 since last Summer is too many it's still not exactly an epidemic. But is this because the US doesn't pay ransoms or because the terrorists have greater opportunity to take French citizens than Americans?

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