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Monday, June 29, 2015

How Do You Convince Greece to Stay in the Euro?

     I can't think of too many good arguments. At least anything that would convince me if I were a Greek to vote yes July 6. 

     I'm pretty sure that what European Commission President Jean-Paul Juncker is saying isn't going to work:

    *I'll do everything I can to keep Greece in euro zone. "Greece is a member of the European family, and I want this family to stay together."

    *This isn't a game of liar's poker. It's not "an attitude worthy of the great Greek nation" to play one democracy against others."

    *Either we're all winners or we're all losers."

    *We don't deserve the criticism against us: We never offered wage cuts or pension cuts."

    *The Greek people have to know the truth—not the watered-down version Athens is giving them."

   *This is not the end of the process, we are still prepared to reach a deal."

   *I'd like to ask the Greek people to vote 'yes.'
   *A 'no' vote would be disastrous, it would mean that Greece wants distance from euro and Europe.

   *You shouldn't commit suicide because you're afraid of death."


     http://www.cnbc.com/id/102795010

      Don't commit suicide because you fear death. 

     Well, this Commission President has the right name-Juncker. Those who are aware of German history will get the irony. 

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junker_(Prussia)

      I was just watching CNBC and what they are saying is that what has provoked the EU folks so much is not just the election but that Tsipras' party has been urging people to vote no. 

      For my part, I would too-as Krugman also said this morning. 

      Basically this is Liar's Poker or the Prisoner's Dilemma. 

      1. The EU says it wants Greece to stay but won't compromise the terms demanded. 

      2. You might say that the Greeks are the mirror image of the EU. Greece says it wants to stay in the euro but doesn't want to do austerity. 

      However, this is misleading as they've already done plenty of painful austerity in 5 years with nothing to show for it except GDP per capita at 1994 levels. 

      The Greeks have already done lots of austerity and are still willing to do more. However, the EU wants the same level that PASOK agreed to before they were voted out. 

       At the end of the day, it's the EU that won't compromise at all. 

       P.S. I've been representing this vote as whether or not to leave the euro. However, the actual vote is whether or not to accept the latest austerity mandated by the troika. In theory the Greeks could stay in the euro even then and even if they did leave it would take some time. 

      UPDATE: The best reason not to leave the euro is the short term pain involved in leaving a currency and trying to install trust for a new one-the Drachma. You can't overstate the dangers there. But as Krugman says this has been done before and there's no reason why Greece can''t as well. .

    The pain they are currently in is so bad that they may as well take this risk. 

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